UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.262.54safe0.31–2.250.41–2.120.72–4.37safer0.06–2.500.18–2.340.24–4.85
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.208.45safe2.39–6.112.46–5.954.85–12.06safer1.90–6.601.99–6.413.89–13.01
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8912.6225.51safe8.96–16.819.06–16.1918.02–33.00safer7.87–17.908.10–17.1415.97–35.05
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.337.8915.22safe4.39–10.275.21–10.579.60–20.85safer3.56–11.104.47–11.318.03–22.41
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.966.36safe1.51–5.281.31–4.622.82–9.89safer0.97–5.820.82–5.111.79–10.93
Corners
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.824.549.36safe2.61–7.042.54–6.545.15–13.57safer2.03–7.612.01–7.074.04–14.68
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction50.9848.73safe44.19–57.7741.94–55.51safer42.52–59.4440.27–57.18
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction457425883safe390–525359–492749–1016safer372–543341–509713–1052
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction77.7178.41safe73.68–81.7474.09–82.73safer72.39–83.0372.78–84.04
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7413.3825.12safe8.90–14.5710.44–16.3319.34–30.90safer8.14–15.339.69–17.0817.83–32.41
Offsides
36%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.432.81safe0.22–2.540.34–2.520.56–5.07safer0.00–2.850.05–2.810.00–5.66
Yellow cards
42%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.284.64safe1.31–3.411.15–3.412.46–6.82safer1.05–3.680.86–3.701.90–7.37
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.045.86safe1.39–4.261.48–4.592.87–8.85safer1.00–4.651.06–5.022.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.25 0.06–2.50 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.34 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 4.20 2.46–5.95 1.99–6.41 | 8.45 4.85–12.06 3.89–13.01 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.89 8.96–16.81 7.87–17.90 | 12.62 9.06–16.19 8.10–17.14 | 25.51 18.02–33.00 15.97–35.05 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.33 4.39–10.27 3.56–11.10 | 7.89 5.21–10.57 4.47–11.31 | 15.22 9.60–20.85 8.03–22.41 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.28 0.97–5.82 | 2.96 1.31–4.62 0.82–5.11 | 6.36 2.82–9.89 1.79–10.93 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.61–7.04 2.03–7.61 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.07 | 9.36 5.15–13.57 4.04–14.68 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.98 44.19–57.77 42.52–59.44 | 48.73 41.94–55.51 40.27–57.18 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 457 390–525 372–543 | 425 359–492 341–509 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.71 73.68–81.74 72.39–83.03 | 78.41 74.09–82.73 72.78–84.04 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.57 8.14–15.33 | 13.38 10.44–16.33 9.69–17.08 | 25.12 19.34–30.90 17.83–32.41 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.85 | 1.43 0.34–2.52 0.05–2.81 | 2.81 0.56–5.07 0.00–5.66 | 36% 25% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.05–3.68 | 2.28 1.15–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 4.64 2.46–6.82 1.90–7.37 | 42% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 3.04 1.48–4.59 1.06–5.02 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.