UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ondrej Berka
Goals
23%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.742.81safe0.11–2.040.88–2.600.99–4.63safer0.00–2.300.63–2.840.48–5.14actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.504.517.02safe0.65–4.362.80–6.223.45–10.58safer0.15–4.862.33–6.692.48–11.55actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7714.0523.82safe6.07–13.4710.67–17.4316.74–30.90safer5.04–14.509.74–18.3614.77–32.86actual24.0011.0035.00
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.238.1614.39safe3.71–8.755.86–10.469.58–19.21safer2.85–9.615.06–11.267.91–20.87actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
25%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.876.52safe1.07–4.242.45–5.283.53–9.52safer0.54–4.781.97–5.772.50–10.54actual8.005.0013.00
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.8610.38safe2.32–6.733.88–7.846.20–14.56safer1.72–7.323.34–8.375.06–15.70actual11.002.0013.00
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.4154.23safe40.09–52.7347.91–60.55safer38.50–54.3346.32–62.15actual67.0033.00
Passes
21%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction344436780safe279–409372–501650–910safer261–427354–518615–945actual566282848
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction74.0880.86safe69.86–78.2976.35–85.37safer68.56–79.5975.02–86.70
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1413.0526.18safe10.28–15.9910.10–15.9920.38–31.99safer9.39–16.889.18–16.9118.58–33.79actual14.0014.0028.00
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.843.92safe0.87–3.280.68–3.001.54–6.29safer0.52–3.630.35–3.340.87–6.96actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.803.73safe0.87–2.990.68–2.921.55–5.91safer0.60–3.260.39–3.210.99–6.47actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
41%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.745.45safe1.30–4.131.18–4.292.48–8.42safer0.91–4.510.75–4.721.66–9.24actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.04 0.00–2.30 | 1.00 | 1.74 0.88–2.60 0.63–2.84 | 2.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 3.00 | 23% 24% 53% |
| Shots on target | 2.50 0.65–4.36 0.15–4.86 | 6.00 | 4.51 2.80–6.22 2.33–6.69 | 3.00 | 7.02 3.45–10.58 2.48–11.55 | 9.00 | 17% 72% |
| Total shots | 9.77 6.07–13.47 5.04–14.50 | 24.00 | 14.05 10.67–17.43 9.74–18.36 | 11.00 | 23.82 16.74–30.90 14.77–32.86 | 35.00 | 16% 78% |
| Shots in box | 6.23 3.71–8.75 2.85–9.61 | 11.00 | 8.16 5.86–10.46 5.06–11.26 | 7.00 | 14.39 9.58–19.21 7.91–20.87 | 18.00 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 2.66 1.07–4.24 0.54–4.78 | 8.00 | 3.87 2.45–5.28 1.97–5.77 | 5.00 | 6.52 3.53–9.52 2.50–10.54 | 13.00 | 25% 14% 61% |
| Corners | 4.52 2.32–6.73 1.72–7.32 | 11.00 | 5.86 3.88–7.84 3.34–8.37 | 2.00 | 10.38 6.20–14.56 5.06–15.70 | 13.00 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 46.41 40.09–52.73 38.50–54.33 | 67.00 | 54.23 47.91–60.55 46.32–62.15 | 33.00 | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 344 279–409 261–427 | 566 | 436 372–501 354–518 | 282 | 780 650–910 615–945 | 848 | 21% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.08 69.86–78.29 68.56–79.59 | — | 80.86 76.35–85.37 75.02–86.70 | — | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 13.14 10.28–15.99 9.39–16.88 | 14.00 | 13.05 10.10–15.99 9.18–16.91 | 14.00 | 26.18 20.38–31.99 18.58–33.79 | 28.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.87–3.28 0.52–3.63 | 1.00 | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.35–3.34 | 0.00 | 3.92 1.54–6.29 0.87–6.96 | 1.00 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.87–2.99 0.60–3.26 | 1.00 | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | 3.00 | 3.73 1.55–5.91 0.99–6.47 | 4.00 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 1.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 1.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.30–4.13 0.91–4.51 | 1.00 | 2.74 1.18–4.29 0.75–4.72 | 4.00 | 5.45 2.48–8.42 1.66–9.24 | 5.00 | 41% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.