UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.582.77safe0.22–2.150.73–2.440.94–4.59safer0.00–2.400.50–2.670.46–5.07
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.699.38safe2.83–6.562.94–6.435.78–12.99safer2.34–7.052.48–6.894.82–13.94
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9012.6526.54safe9.97–17.829.09–16.2119.06–34.03safer8.88–18.918.13–17.1717.01–36.08
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.988.8516.83safe5.04–10.926.17–11.5311.20–22.45safer4.21–11.755.43–12.279.64–24.02
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.646.77safe1.25–5.011.99–5.293.24–10.31safer0.71–5.561.50–5.792.20–11.34
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.185.1610.34safe2.96–7.393.16–7.166.12–14.55safer2.39–7.962.63–7.695.02–15.66
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction47.3151.24safe40.52–54.1044.45–58.02safer38.85–55.7742.78–59.69
Passes
50%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction427425851safe359–494358–491717–985safer341–512341–509682–1020
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction69.7972.69safe65.76–73.8268.37–77.01safer64.47–75.1167.06–78.32
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3511.9523.30safe8.51–14.199.00–14.8917.52–29.08safer7.76–14.948.26–15.6416.01–30.59
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.913.87safe0.80–3.120.82–3.001.61–6.12safer0.50–3.420.53–3.291.02–6.71
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.033.72safe0.64–2.740.90–3.161.54–5.90safer0.38–3.010.61–3.450.99–6.46
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.366.33safe1.54–4.411.80–4.913.34–9.32safer1.15–4.801.38–5.342.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 2.77 0.94–4.59 0.46–5.07 | 29% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.83–6.56 2.34–7.05 | 4.69 2.94–6.43 2.48–6.89 | 9.38 5.78–12.99 4.82–13.94 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.90 9.97–17.82 8.88–18.91 | 12.65 9.09–16.21 8.13–17.17 | 26.54 19.06–34.03 17.01–36.08 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.98 5.04–10.92 4.21–11.75 | 8.85 6.17–11.53 5.43–12.27 | 16.83 11.20–22.45 9.64–24.02 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.01 0.71–5.56 | 3.64 1.99–5.29 1.50–5.79 | 6.77 3.24–10.31 2.20–11.34 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.96–7.39 2.39–7.96 | 5.16 3.16–7.16 2.63–7.69 | 10.34 6.12–14.55 5.02–15.66 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.31 40.52–54.10 38.85–55.77 | 51.24 44.45–58.02 42.78–59.69 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 427 359–494 341–512 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 851 717–985 682–1020 | 50% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.79 65.76–73.82 64.47–75.11 | 72.69 68.37–77.01 67.06–78.32 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.35 8.51–14.19 7.76–14.94 | 11.95 9.00–14.89 8.26–15.64 | 23.30 17.52–29.08 16.01–30.59 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.87 1.61–6.12 1.02–6.71 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.72 1.54–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 3.36 1.80–4.91 1.38–5.34 | 6.33 3.34–9.32 2.52–10.13 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.