UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.352.65safe0.33–2.260.49–2.200.82–4.47safer0.08–2.520.27–2.430.34–4.95
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.108.89safe2.93–6.662.35–5.845.29–12.50safer2.44–7.151.89–6.304.33–13.45
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6711.1924.85safe9.74–17.597.62–14.7517.36–32.34safer8.65–18.686.66–15.7115.31–34.39
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.147.8616.00safe5.20–11.095.18–10.5410.38–21.62safer4.37–11.914.44–11.288.81–23.19
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.036.09safe1.18–4.941.38–4.682.55–9.62safer0.63–5.480.88–5.171.52–10.66
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.013.968.97safe2.79–7.221.96–5.964.76–13.18safer2.22–7.791.43–6.503.65–14.29
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.2747.94safe45.48–59.0641.16–54.72safer43.81–60.7339.48–56.40
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction436419855safe369–503352–485721–989safer351–521335–503686–1024
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction74.7875.40safe70.75–78.8171.08–79.73safer69.46–80.1169.77–81.04
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6712.6524.32safe8.83–14.519.71–15.6018.54–30.10safer8.07–15.268.96–16.3417.03–31.61
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.613.64safe0.87–3.190.52–2.701.39–5.90safer0.57–3.490.23–2.990.80–6.49
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.314.02safe0.67–2.761.18–3.441.85–6.20safer0.40–3.030.89–3.731.29–6.76
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.476.43safe1.52–4.401.92–5.033.44–9.43safer1.14–4.781.49–5.452.63–10.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.26 0.08–2.52 | 1.35 0.49–2.20 0.27–2.43 | 2.65 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.66 2.44–7.15 | 4.10 2.35–5.84 1.89–6.30 | 8.89 5.29–12.50 4.33–13.45 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.74–17.59 8.65–18.68 | 11.19 7.62–14.75 6.66–15.71 | 24.85 17.36–32.34 15.31–34.39 | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.14 5.20–11.09 4.37–11.91 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.44–11.28 | 16.00 10.38–21.62 8.81–23.19 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.06 1.18–4.94 0.63–5.48 | 3.03 1.38–4.68 0.88–5.17 | 6.09 2.55–9.62 1.52–10.66 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.79–7.22 2.22–7.79 | 3.96 1.96–5.96 1.43–6.50 | 8.97 4.76–13.18 3.65–14.29 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.27 45.48–59.06 43.81–60.73 | 47.94 41.16–54.72 39.48–56.40 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 436 369–503 351–521 | 419 352–485 335–503 | 855 721–989 686–1024 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.78 70.75–78.81 69.46–80.11 | 75.40 71.08–79.73 69.77–81.04 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.51 8.07–15.26 | 12.65 9.71–15.60 8.96–16.34 | 24.32 18.54–30.10 17.03–31.61 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.61 0.52–2.70 0.23–2.99 | 3.64 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 2.31 1.18–3.44 0.89–3.73 | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.29–6.76 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.40 1.14–4.78 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.45 | 6.43 3.44–9.43 2.63–10.24 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.