UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.412.82safe0.43–2.370.56–2.270.99–4.64safer0.18–2.620.33–2.500.51–5.12
Shots on target
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.649.63safe3.14–6.862.89–6.386.03–13.24safer2.65–7.352.43–6.845.07–14.20
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1813.0627.24safe10.26–18.109.50–16.6219.75–34.73safer9.16–19.208.54–17.5817.70–36.78
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.988.6617.64safe6.04–11.935.98–11.3412.02–23.27safer5.21–12.765.24–12.0810.45–24.83
Blocked shots
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.504.227.72safe1.62–5.392.57–5.874.19–11.26safer1.08–5.932.07–6.373.15–12.30
Corners
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.479.40safe2.72–7.152.47–6.475.19–13.61safer2.15–7.721.93–7.004.08–14.72
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.6750.88safe42.88–56.4644.10–57.67safer41.21–58.1342.43–59.34
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction509484994safe442–577418–551860–1128safer424–595400–568825–1163
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction67.3774.85safe63.34–71.4070.52–79.17safer62.05–72.6969.22–80.48
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9412.8123.75safe8.11–13.789.87–15.7617.97–29.54safer7.35–14.549.12–16.5016.47–31.04
Offsides
70%
14%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.401.705.09safe2.24–4.560.60–2.792.84–7.35safer1.94–4.860.31–3.082.25–7.94
Yellow cards
32%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.003.62safe0.57–2.670.87–3.131.44–5.79safer0.30–2.930.58–3.420.88–6.35
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.396.38safe1.56–4.431.83–4.953.39–9.38safer1.17–4.821.41–5.372.58–10.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.41 0.56–2.27 0.33–2.50 | 2.82 0.99–4.64 0.51–5.12 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.86 2.65–7.35 | 4.64 2.89–6.38 2.43–6.84 | 9.63 6.03–13.24 5.07–14.20 | 48% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.18 10.26–18.10 9.16–19.20 | 13.06 9.50–16.62 8.54–17.58 | 27.24 19.75–34.73 17.70–36.78 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.98 6.04–11.93 5.21–12.76 | 8.66 5.98–11.34 5.24–12.08 | 17.64 12.02–23.27 10.45–24.83 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 4.22 2.57–5.87 2.07–6.37 | 7.72 4.19–11.26 3.15–12.30 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.72–7.15 2.15–7.72 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 9.40 5.19–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 49.67 42.88–56.46 41.21–58.13 | 50.88 44.10–57.67 42.43–59.34 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 509 442–577 424–595 | 484 418–551 400–568 | 994 860–1128 825–1163 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.37 63.34–71.40 62.05–72.69 | 74.85 70.52–79.17 69.22–80.48 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.11–13.78 7.35–14.54 | 12.81 9.87–15.76 9.12–16.50 | 23.75 17.97–29.54 16.47–31.04 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 3.40 2.24–4.56 1.94–4.86 | 1.70 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 5.09 2.84–7.35 2.25–7.94 | 70% 14% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 32% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.39 1.83–4.95 1.41–5.37 | 6.38 3.39–9.38 2.58–10.19 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.