UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.830.962.79safe0.86–2.800.11–1.810.96–4.61safer0.61–3.050.00–2.040.49–5.09
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.953.699.64safe4.09–7.811.95–5.436.03–13.24safer3.60–8.301.48–5.905.08–14.20
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction17.3210.4627.78safe13.39–21.246.90–14.0220.29–35.26safer12.30–22.335.94–14.9818.24–37.31
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction12.126.9419.06safe9.18–15.074.26–9.6213.44–24.68safer8.35–15.893.52–10.3511.87–26.25
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.603.067.67safe2.72–6.491.41–4.724.13–11.20safer2.18–7.030.92–5.213.10–12.24
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.053.409.45safe3.84–8.271.40–5.405.23–13.66safer3.27–8.840.86–5.934.13–14.77
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction59.3341.60safe52.54–66.1234.82–48.39safer50.87–67.7933.15–50.06
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction5904231014safe523–657357–490880–1147safer505–676339–507844–1183
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction76.0075.93safe71.97–80.0371.60–80.25safer70.68–81.3270.30–81.56
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0911.2822.37safe8.25–13.928.34–14.2316.59–28.15safer7.49–14.687.59–14.9815.08–29.66
Offsides
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.523.04safe0.36–2.680.43–2.610.79–5.29safer0.06–2.980.14–2.900.20–5.88
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.913.45safe0.49–2.590.78–3.041.27–5.63safer0.22–2.860.49–3.330.71–6.18
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.574.016.58safe1.14–4.012.45–5.563.59–9.57safer0.75–4.402.02–5.992.78–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 0.96 0.11–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 58% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.95 4.09–7.81 3.60–8.30 | 3.69 1.95–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 9.64 6.03–13.24 5.08–14.20 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 17.32 13.39–21.24 12.30–22.33 | 10.46 6.90–14.02 5.94–14.98 | 27.78 20.29–35.26 18.24–37.31 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 12.12 9.18–15.07 8.35–15.89 | 6.94 4.26–9.62 3.52–10.35 | 19.06 13.44–24.68 11.87–26.25 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.60 2.72–6.49 2.18–7.03 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 7.67 4.13–11.20 3.10–12.24 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.05 3.84–8.27 3.27–8.84 | 3.40 1.40–5.40 0.86–5.93 | 9.45 5.23–13.66 4.13–14.77 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 59.33 52.54–66.12 50.87–67.79 | 41.60 34.82–48.39 33.15–50.06 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 590 523–657 505–676 | 423 357–490 339–507 | 1014 880–1147 844–1183 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.00 71.97–80.03 70.68–81.32 | 75.93 71.60–80.25 70.30–81.56 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.25–13.92 7.49–14.68 | 11.28 8.34–14.23 7.59–14.98 | 22.37 16.59–28.15 15.08–29.66 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.04 0.79–5.29 0.20–5.88 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.86 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.71–6.18 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 4.01 2.45–5.56 2.02–5.99 | 6.58 3.59–9.57 2.78–10.38 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.