UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
23%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.863.04safe0.21–2.151.00–2.711.22–4.86safer0.00–2.400.78–2.940.74–5.34
Shots on target
27%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.145.579.71safe2.28–6.003.83–7.326.11–13.32safer1.79–6.493.36–7.785.15–14.27
Total shots
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3615.6728.02safe8.43–16.2812.10–19.2320.54–35.51safer7.34–17.3711.15–20.1918.49–37.56
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction7.1610.6317.79safe4.22–10.107.95–13.3112.17–23.41safer3.39–10.937.21–14.0510.60–24.98
Blocked shots
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.375.008.37safe1.48–5.253.35–6.664.83–11.90safer0.94–5.792.86–7.153.80–12.94
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.225.719.92safe2.00–6.433.71–7.715.71–14.14safer1.43–7.013.17–8.244.60–15.24
Possession %
25%
72%
homeawayprediction45.3455.96safe38.55–52.1349.17–62.74safer36.88–53.8047.50–64.41
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction416480896safe349–484413–546762–1030safer331–502396–564727–1066
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.5374.95safe61.50–69.5670.63–79.28safer60.21–70.8569.32–80.58
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.1624.24safe9.24–14.919.22–15.1118.46–30.02safer8.48–15.678.47–15.8616.95–31.53
Offsides
33%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.943.56safe0.46–2.780.85–3.041.31–5.81safer0.16–3.080.56–3.320.72–6.40
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.973.92safe0.91–3.010.84–3.101.75–6.10safer0.64–3.270.55–3.391.19–6.66
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.782.936.71safe2.34–5.221.37–4.483.71–9.70safer1.96–5.600.95–4.912.90–10.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.86 1.00–2.71 0.78–2.94 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.74–5.34 | 24% 23% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.79–6.49 | 5.57 3.83–7.32 3.36–7.78 | 9.71 6.11–13.32 5.15–14.27 | 27% 62% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.43–16.28 7.34–17.37 | 15.67 12.10–19.23 11.15–20.19 | 28.02 20.54–35.51 18.49–37.56 | 24% 70% |
| Shots in box | 7.16 4.22–10.10 3.39–10.93 | 10.63 7.95–13.31 7.21–14.05 | 17.79 12.17–23.41 10.60–24.98 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.48–5.25 0.94–5.79 | 5.00 3.35–6.66 2.86–7.15 | 8.37 4.83–11.90 3.80–12.94 | 23% 65% |
| Corners | 4.22 2.00–6.43 1.43–7.01 | 5.71 3.71–7.71 3.17–8.24 | 9.92 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.24 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 45.34 38.55–52.13 36.88–53.80 | 55.96 49.17–62.74 47.50–64.41 | — | 25% 72% |
| Passes | 416 349–484 331–502 | 480 413–546 396–564 | 896 762–1030 727–1066 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.53 61.50–69.56 60.21–70.85 | 74.95 70.63–79.28 69.32–80.58 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.91 8.48–15.67 | 12.16 9.22–15.11 8.47–15.86 | 24.24 18.46–30.02 16.95–31.53 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.94 0.85–3.04 0.56–3.32 | 3.56 1.31–5.81 0.72–6.40 | 33% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.27 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.92 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.78 2.34–5.22 1.96–5.60 | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.95–4.91 | 6.71 3.71–9.70 2.90–10.51 | 55% 15% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.