UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.132.38safe0.28–2.220.27–1.980.56–4.20safer0.03–2.470.05–2.210.08–4.68
Shots on target
53%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.808.29safe2.63–6.362.06–5.544.69–11.90safer2.14–6.851.59–6.013.73–12.85
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9810.5024.48safe10.06–17.906.93–14.0616.99–31.96safer8.96–19.005.98–15.0214.94–34.02
Shots in box
54%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction7.736.8014.53safe4.79–10.674.12–9.488.91–20.15safer3.96–11.503.38–10.227.34–21.72
Blocked shots
55%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.572.726.28safe1.68–5.451.07–4.372.75–9.82safer1.14–5.990.57–4.861.71–10.85
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.988.94safe2.75–7.171.98–5.984.73–13.15safer2.17–7.751.45–6.513.62–14.26
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction54.3446.89safe47.55–61.1340.10–53.67safer45.88–62.8038.43–55.35
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction497420916safe429–564353–486783–1050safer411–582336–504747–1086
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction75.0376.83safe71.00–79.0672.51–81.16safer69.71–80.3571.20–82.47
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1911.6624.85safe10.35–16.038.71–14.6019.07–30.63safer9.60–16.787.96–15.3517.56–32.14
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.763.47safe0.55–2.870.67–2.851.21–5.72safer0.24–3.170.38–3.140.62–6.31
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.064.03safe0.92–3.020.93–3.191.85–6.21safer0.65–3.280.64–3.481.29–6.76
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.015.69safe1.25–4.121.45–4.562.70–8.68safer0.86–4.511.03–4.991.89–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.05–2.21 | 2.38 0.56–4.20 0.08–4.68 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.36 2.14–6.85 | 3.80 2.06–5.54 1.59–6.01 | 8.29 4.69–11.90 3.73–12.85 | 53% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.98 10.06–17.90 8.96–19.00 | 10.50 6.93–14.06 5.98–15.02 | 24.48 16.99–31.96 14.94–34.02 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 7.73 4.79–10.67 3.96–11.50 | 6.80 4.12–9.48 3.38–10.22 | 14.53 8.91–20.15 7.34–21.72 | 54% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.68–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 2.72 1.07–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 6.28 2.75–9.82 1.71–10.85 | 55% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.75–7.17 2.17–7.75 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.45–6.51 | 8.94 4.73–13.15 3.62–14.26 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.34 47.55–61.13 45.88–62.80 | 46.89 40.10–53.67 38.43–55.35 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 497 429–564 411–582 | 420 353–486 336–504 | 916 783–1050 747–1086 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.03 71.00–79.06 69.71–80.35 | 76.83 72.51–81.16 71.20–82.47 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 13.19 10.35–16.03 9.60–16.78 | 11.66 8.71–14.60 7.96–15.35 | 24.85 19.07–30.63 17.56–32.14 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.24–3.17 | 1.76 0.67–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.47 1.21–5.72 0.62–6.31 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.65–3.28 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.29–6.76 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.03–4.99 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.89–9.50 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+