UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Goals
25%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.552.58safe0.07–1.990.69–2.410.76–4.40safer0.00–2.250.44–2.660.25–4.91actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.908.56safe1.80–5.523.20–6.615.00–12.13safer1.31–6.022.73–7.084.03–13.09actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9314.1125.04safe7.22–14.6310.73–17.4917.95–32.12safer6.19–15.669.80–18.4215.99–34.08actual9.0021.0030.00
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction6.208.8415.04safe3.68–8.716.54–11.1410.22–19.86safer2.82–9.585.74–11.948.56–21.52actual5.0013.0018.00
Blocked shots
23%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.874.297.16safe1.28–4.452.88–5.714.16–10.16safer0.75–4.992.39–6.193.14–11.18actual2.006.008.00
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.625.6810.30safe2.41–6.823.70–7.666.12–14.48safer1.82–7.423.17–8.204.98–15.61actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.2953.21safe39.97–52.6146.89–59.53safer38.38–54.2145.29–61.13actual33.0067.00
Passes
26%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction379453832safe314–445388–517702–962safer296–462371–535667–997actual261527788
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction66.9473.29safe62.73–71.1668.78–77.80safer61.43–72.4667.45–79.13
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4713.5524.02safe7.61–13.3310.61–16.5018.22–29.82safer6.73–14.219.69–17.4216.42–31.63actual8.0023.0031.00
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.813.78safe0.76–3.180.64–2.971.41–6.15safer0.42–3.520.31–3.300.73–6.83actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.414.44safe0.97–3.081.29–3.532.26–6.61safer0.70–3.361.00–3.821.70–7.18actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.675.45safe1.37–4.201.11–4.222.48–8.42safer0.98–4.590.68–4.651.66–9.24actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.07–1.99 0.00–2.25 | 2.00 | 1.55 0.69–2.41 0.44–2.66 | 0.00 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.25–4.91 | 2.00 | 25% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.52 1.31–6.02 | 3.00 | 4.90 3.20–6.61 2.73–7.08 | 5.00 | 8.56 5.00–12.13 4.03–13.09 | 8.00 | 27% 60% |
| Total shots | 10.93 7.22–14.63 6.19–15.66 | 9.00 | 14.11 10.73–17.49 9.80–18.42 | 21.00 | 25.04 17.95–32.12 15.99–34.08 | 30.00 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.20 3.68–8.71 2.82–9.58 | 5.00 | 8.84 6.54–11.14 5.74–11.94 | 13.00 | 15.04 10.22–19.86 8.56–21.52 | 18.00 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.87 1.28–4.45 0.75–4.99 | 2.00 | 4.29 2.88–5.71 2.39–6.19 | 6.00 | 7.16 4.16–10.16 3.14–11.18 | 8.00 | 23% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.41–6.82 1.82–7.42 | 4.00 | 5.68 3.70–7.66 3.17–8.20 | 8.00 | 10.30 6.12–14.48 4.98–15.61 | 12.00 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 46.29 39.97–52.61 38.38–54.21 | 33.00 | 53.21 46.89–59.53 45.29–61.13 | 67.00 | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 379 314–445 296–462 | 261 | 453 388–517 371–535 | 527 | 832 702–962 667–997 | 788 | 26% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.94 62.73–71.16 61.43–72.46 | — | 73.29 68.78–77.80 67.45–79.13 | — | — | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 10.47 7.61–13.33 6.73–14.21 | 8.00 | 13.55 10.61–16.50 9.69–17.42 | 23.00 | 24.02 18.22–29.82 16.42–31.63 | 31.00 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.42–3.52 | 2.00 | 1.81 0.64–2.97 0.31–3.30 | 3.00 | 3.78 1.41–6.15 0.73–6.83 | 5.00 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.97–3.08 0.70–3.36 | 2.00 | 2.41 1.29–3.53 1.00–3.82 | 3.00 | 4.44 2.26–6.61 1.70–7.18 | 5.00 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.37–4.20 0.98–4.59 | 5.00 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 1.00 | 5.45 2.48–8.42 1.66–9.24 | 6.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+