UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Harm Osmers · Germany
Goals
60%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.800.852.65safe0.84–2.760.00–1.710.83–4.48safer0.58–3.020.00–1.960.32–4.98actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.402.498.89safe4.54–8.250.78–4.205.32–12.45safer4.04–8.750.31–4.674.36–13.42actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction17.086.2623.33safe13.37–20.782.88–9.6416.25–30.42safer12.34–21.811.95–10.5714.29–32.38actual25.004.0029.00
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.915.6217.52safe9.39–14.423.31–7.9212.71–22.34safer8.53–15.292.52–8.7111.04–24.00actual18.004.0022.00
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.236.55safe2.74–5.900.82–3.653.56–9.55safer2.20–6.440.33–4.132.53–10.57actual8.000.008.00
Corners
90%
homeawaytotalprediction7.793.1710.97safe5.59–10.001.20–5.156.78–15.15safer4.99–10.590.66–5.695.65–16.28actual13.000.0013.00
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction56.7443.40safe50.43–63.0637.08–49.72safer48.83–64.6635.49–51.32actual58.0042.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction504367872safe439–570303–432742–1002safer422–587285–449707–1037actual460347807
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction80.9171.00safe76.69–85.1266.49–75.50safer75.39–86.4265.16–76.83actual83.0076.00
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2312.3325.56safe10.37–16.089.38–15.2719.75–31.36safer9.48–16.978.47–16.1917.95–33.16actual10.0013.0023.00
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.823.55safe0.51–2.930.66–2.991.17–5.92safer0.17–3.280.33–3.320.50–6.60actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
27%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.644.53safe0.83–2.941.52–3.762.35–6.70safer0.56–3.211.23–4.051.79–7.27actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.130.17safe0.00–0.200.00–0.320.00–0.52safer0.00–0.350.00–0.470.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
13%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.923.745.65safe0.50–3.332.18–5.292.69–8.62safer0.11–3.721.75–5.721.86–9.44actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.76 0.58–3.02 | 2.00 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.96 | 1.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.48 0.32–4.98 | 3.00 | 60% 23% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.40 4.54–8.25 4.04–8.75 | 6.00 | 2.49 0.78–4.20 0.31–4.67 | 3.00 | 8.89 5.32–12.45 4.36–13.42 | 9.00 | 88% |
| Total shots | 17.08 13.37–20.78 12.34–21.81 | 25.00 | 6.26 2.88–9.64 1.95–10.57 | 4.00 | 23.33 16.25–30.42 14.29–32.38 | 29.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 11.91 9.39–14.42 8.53–15.29 | 18.00 | 5.62 3.31–7.92 2.52–8.71 | 4.00 | 17.52 12.71–22.34 11.04–24.00 | 22.00 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.74–5.90 2.20–6.44 | 8.00 | 2.23 0.82–3.65 0.33–4.13 | 0.00 | 6.55 3.56–9.55 2.53–10.57 | 8.00 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 7.79 5.59–10.00 4.99–10.59 | 13.00 | 3.17 1.20–5.15 0.66–5.69 | 0.00 | 10.97 6.78–15.15 5.65–16.28 | 13.00 | 90% |
| Possession % | 56.74 50.43–63.06 48.83–64.66 | 58.00 | 43.40 37.08–49.72 35.49–51.32 | 42.00 | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 504 439–570 422–587 | 460 | 367 303–432 285–449 | 347 | 872 742–1002 707–1037 | 807 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.91 76.69–85.12 75.39–86.42 | 83.00 | 71.00 66.49–75.50 65.16–76.83 | 76.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 13.23 10.37–16.08 9.48–16.97 | 10.00 | 12.33 9.38–15.27 8.47–16.19 | 13.00 | 25.56 19.75–31.36 17.95–33.16 | 23.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.51–2.93 0.17–3.28 | 1.00 | 1.82 0.66–2.99 0.33–3.32 | 2.00 | 3.55 1.17–5.92 0.50–6.60 | 3.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.83–2.94 0.56–3.21 | 2.00 | 2.64 1.52–3.76 1.23–4.05 | 3.00 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.27 | 5.00 | 27% 18% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.50–3.33 0.11–3.72 | 3.00 | 3.74 2.18–5.29 1.75–5.72 | 4.00 | 5.65 2.69–8.62 1.86–9.44 | 7.00 | 16% 13% 71% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+