UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.832.84safe0.04–1.980.97–2.681.01–4.66safer0.00–2.230.74–2.910.53–5.14
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.695.499.18safe1.83–5.563.74–7.235.58–12.79safer1.34–6.053.28–7.694.62–13.74
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3914.5725.96safe7.46–15.3111.01–18.1318.47–33.44safer6.37–16.4010.05–19.0916.42–35.49
Shots in box
19%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.209.0715.27safe3.26–9.146.39–11.759.64–20.89safer2.43–9.975.65–12.488.08–22.46
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.984.317.30safe1.10–4.872.66–5.963.76–10.83safer0.56–5.412.17–6.462.72–11.87
Corners
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.846.079.90safe1.62–6.054.07–8.075.69–14.12safer1.05–6.623.53–8.604.58–15.22
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction40.8560.38safe34.06–47.6453.59–67.16safer32.39–49.3151.92–68.83
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction377544922safe310–445478–611788–1055safer292–463460–628752–1091
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction76.6083.54safe72.57–80.6379.22–87.86safer71.28–81.9377.91–89.17
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5211.6125.13safe10.68–16.368.66–14.5519.35–30.91safer9.93–17.117.91–15.3017.84–32.41
Offsides
33%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.613.01safe0.24–2.560.52–2.700.76–5.27safer0.00–2.870.23–2.990.17–5.86
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.154.28safe1.07–3.171.02–3.282.10–6.45safer0.81–3.440.73–3.571.54–7.01
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.742.526.26safe2.30–5.180.97–4.083.27–9.25safer1.92–5.560.54–4.502.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.04–1.98 0.00–2.23 | 1.83 0.97–2.68 0.74–2.91 | 2.84 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 21% 23% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.69 1.83–5.56 1.34–6.05 | 5.49 3.74–7.23 3.28–7.69 | 9.18 5.58–12.79 4.62–13.74 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.39 7.46–15.31 6.37–16.40 | 14.57 11.01–18.13 10.05–19.09 | 25.96 18.47–33.44 16.42–35.49 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.20 3.26–9.14 2.43–9.97 | 9.07 6.39–11.75 5.65–12.48 | 15.27 9.64–20.89 8.08–22.46 | 19% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.10–4.87 0.56–5.41 | 4.31 2.66–5.96 2.17–6.46 | 7.30 3.76–10.83 2.72–11.87 | 25% 13% 62% |
| Corners | 3.84 1.62–6.05 1.05–6.62 | 6.07 4.07–8.07 3.53–8.60 | 9.90 5.69–14.12 4.58–15.22 | 19% 71% |
| Possession % | 40.85 34.06–47.64 32.39–49.31 | 60.38 53.59–67.16 51.92–68.83 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 377 310–445 292–463 | 544 478–611 460–628 | 922 788–1055 752–1091 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.60 72.57–80.63 71.28–81.93 | 83.54 79.22–87.86 77.91–89.17 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.52 10.68–16.36 9.93–17.11 | 11.61 8.66–14.55 7.91–15.30 | 25.13 19.35–30.91 17.84–32.41 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.87 | 1.61 0.52–2.70 0.23–2.99 | 3.01 0.76–5.27 0.17–5.86 | 33% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.28 2.10–6.45 1.54–7.01 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.74 2.30–5.18 1.92–5.56 | 2.52 0.97–4.08 0.54–4.50 | 6.26 3.27–9.25 2.46–10.07 | 61% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.