UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Balazs Berke · Hungary
Goals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.132.37safe0.27–2.200.28–1.990.55–4.19safer0.01–2.460.03–2.240.04–4.70actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.687.21safe1.67–5.381.98–5.393.65–10.78safer1.17–5.881.51–5.862.68–11.74actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.699.8619.55safe5.99–13.406.48–13.2412.47–26.63safer4.96–14.435.55–14.1710.51–28.59actual11.0018.0029.00
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.957.9915.94safe5.44–10.475.69–10.2911.12–20.76safer4.57–11.334.89–11.099.46–22.42actual3.0011.0014.00
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.263.246.50safe1.68–4.841.83–4.663.50–9.50safer1.14–5.381.34–5.142.48–10.52actual1.008.009.00
Corners
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.608.66safe1.85–6.262.62–6.584.47–12.84safer1.26–6.862.08–7.123.34–13.97actual3.009.0012.00
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction44.2255.97safe37.91–50.5449.65–62.29safer36.31–52.1448.05–63.89actual47.0053.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction401542944safe336–466478–607814–1073safer318–484460–625778–1109actual4805351015
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction80.9378.92safe76.71–85.1474.41–83.42safer75.41–86.4573.08–84.75actual87.0092.00
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4513.4124.86safe8.59–14.3110.46–16.3519.05–30.66safer7.71–15.199.54–17.2717.25–32.46actual4.0014.0018.00
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.853.55safe0.49–2.910.68–3.011.17–5.92safer0.15–3.250.35–3.340.50–6.59actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.044.10safe1.01–3.120.92–3.161.93–6.28safer0.73–3.390.63–3.451.37–6.84actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.594.77safe0.77–3.601.04–4.141.80–7.74safer0.38–3.980.60–4.570.98–8.56actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.27–2.20 0.01–2.46 | 1.00 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 0.00 | 2.37 0.55–4.19 0.04–4.70 | 1.00 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.67–5.38 1.17–5.88 | 5.00 | 3.68 1.98–5.39 1.51–5.86 | 5.00 | 7.21 3.65–10.78 2.68–11.74 | 10.00 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Total shots | 9.69 5.99–13.40 4.96–14.43 | 11.00 | 9.86 6.48–13.24 5.55–14.17 | 18.00 | 19.55 12.47–26.63 10.51–28.59 | 29.00 | 44% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.44–10.47 4.57–11.33 | 3.00 | 7.99 5.69–10.29 4.89–11.09 | 11.00 | 15.94 11.12–20.76 9.46–22.42 | 14.00 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.68–4.84 1.14–5.38 | 1.00 | 3.24 1.83–4.66 1.34–5.14 | 8.00 | 6.50 3.50–9.50 2.48–10.52 | 9.00 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.06 1.85–6.26 1.26–6.86 | 3.00 | 4.60 2.62–6.58 2.08–7.12 | 9.00 | 8.66 4.47–12.84 3.34–13.97 | 12.00 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.22 37.91–50.54 36.31–52.14 | 47.00 | 55.97 49.65–62.29 48.05–63.89 | 53.00 | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 401 336–466 318–484 | 480 | 542 478–607 460–625 | 535 | 944 814–1073 778–1109 | 1015 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.93 76.71–85.14 75.41–86.45 | 87.00 | 78.92 74.41–83.42 73.08–84.75 | 92.00 | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 11.45 8.59–14.31 7.71–15.19 | 4.00 | 13.41 10.46–16.35 9.54–17.27 | 14.00 | 24.86 19.05–30.66 17.25–32.46 | 18.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.85 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 2.00 | 3.55 1.17–5.92 0.50–6.59 | 3.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.12 0.73–3.39 | 0.00 | 2.04 0.92–3.16 0.63–3.45 | 1.00 | 4.10 1.93–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 1.00 | 40% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.77–3.60 0.38–3.98 | 4.00 | 2.59 1.04–4.14 0.60–4.57 | 4.00 | 4.77 1.80–7.74 0.98–8.56 | 8.00 | 34% 19% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.