UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Yigal Frid
Goals
29%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.582.77safe0.22–2.150.72–2.440.94–4.59safer0.00–2.410.48–2.690.44–5.10actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.858.39safe1.68–5.393.15–6.564.82–11.95safer1.18–5.892.68–7.033.86–12.92actual5.0013.0018.00
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7512.4023.15safe7.04–14.459.02–15.7816.07–30.23safer6.01–15.488.09–16.7114.11–32.19actual14.0022.0036.00
Shots in box
30%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.519.0916.60safe4.99–10.036.79–11.4011.79–21.42safer4.13–10.896.00–12.1910.13–23.08actual8.0014.0022.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.637.02safe1.81–4.982.22–5.044.03–10.02safer1.27–5.511.73–5.533.00–11.04actual4.003.007.00
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.785.3510.13safe2.58–6.993.37–7.325.94–14.31safer1.98–7.582.83–7.864.81–15.44actual5.001.006.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.5754.76safe40.25–52.8948.44–61.08safer38.66–54.4946.84–62.68actual49.0051.00
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction422449871safe357–487384–514741–1001safer339–505367–531706–1036actual4775261003
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction74.3573.48safe70.13–78.5668.97–77.99safer68.83–79.8767.64–79.32
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2112.8123.02safe7.35–13.079.87–15.7617.22–28.82safer6.47–13.958.95–16.6815.42–30.63actual13.0011.0024.00
Offsides
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.683.00safe0.12–2.540.51–2.840.63–5.38safer0.00–2.880.18–3.170.00–6.05actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
32%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.214.02safe0.76–2.871.09–3.331.84–6.19safer0.48–3.140.80–3.621.28–6.76actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
18%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.365.14safe1.37–4.200.80–3.912.17–8.11safer0.98–4.590.37–4.341.35–8.93actual10.004.0014.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 0.00 | 1.58 0.72–2.44 0.48–2.69 | 3.00 | 2.77 0.94–4.59 0.44–5.10 | 3.00 | 29% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.68–5.39 1.18–5.89 | 5.00 | 4.85 3.15–6.56 2.68–7.03 | 13.00 | 8.39 4.82–11.95 3.86–12.92 | 18.00 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 10.75 7.04–14.45 6.01–15.48 | 14.00 | 12.40 9.02–15.78 8.09–16.71 | 22.00 | 23.15 16.07–30.23 14.11–32.19 | 36.00 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 4.99–10.03 4.13–10.89 | 8.00 | 9.09 6.79–11.40 6.00–12.19 | 14.00 | 16.60 11.79–21.42 10.13–23.08 | 22.00 | 30% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.81–4.98 1.27–5.51 | 4.00 | 3.63 2.22–5.04 1.73–5.53 | 3.00 | 7.02 4.03–10.02 3.00–11.04 | 7.00 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.58–6.99 1.98–7.58 | 5.00 | 5.35 3.37–7.32 2.83–7.86 | 1.00 | 10.13 5.94–14.31 4.81–15.44 | 6.00 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 46.57 40.25–52.89 38.66–54.49 | 49.00 | 54.76 48.44–61.08 46.84–62.68 | 51.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 422 357–487 339–505 | 477 | 449 384–514 367–531 | 526 | 871 741–1001 706–1036 | 1003 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.35 70.13–78.56 68.83–79.87 | — | 73.48 68.97–77.99 67.64–79.32 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.35–13.07 6.47–13.95 | 13.00 | 12.81 9.87–15.76 8.95–16.68 | 11.00 | 23.02 17.22–28.82 15.42–30.63 | 24.00 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.12–2.54 0.00–2.88 | 0.00 | 1.68 0.51–2.84 0.18–3.17 | 3.00 | 3.00 0.63–5.38 0.00–6.05 | 3.00 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.87 0.48–3.14 | 2.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 2.00 | 4.02 1.84–6.19 1.28–6.76 | 4.00 | 32% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.37–4.20 0.98–4.59 | 10.00 | 2.36 0.80–3.91 0.37–4.34 | 4.00 | 5.14 2.17–8.11 1.35–8.93 | 14.00 | 48% 18% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+