UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.282.78safe0.53–2.470.42–2.130.96–4.60safer0.28–2.720.20–2.360.48–5.08
Shots on target
48%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.329.04safe2.85–6.582.58–6.065.43–12.64safer2.37–7.072.11–6.534.48–13.60
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.0624.91safe8.92–16.778.50–15.6317.42–32.40safer7.83–17.867.54–16.5915.37–34.45
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.287.7416.02safe5.34–11.225.06–10.4310.40–21.65safer4.51–12.054.33–11.168.83–23.21
Blocked shots
61%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.496.17safe1.79–5.560.84–4.142.63–9.70safer1.25–6.100.35–4.641.59–10.74
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.313.939.24safe3.10–7.521.93–5.935.03–13.46safer2.52–8.101.40–6.463.92–14.56
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.3247.63safe45.53–59.1140.84–54.41safer43.86–60.7839.17–56.08
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction448398846safe381–515331–464712–979safer363–533314–482676–1015
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction76.6675.90safe72.63–80.6971.57–80.22safer71.34–81.9870.26–81.53
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7912.9724.75safe8.95–14.6310.02–15.9118.97–30.54safer8.20–15.389.27–16.6617.47–32.04
Offsides
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.723.07safe0.19–2.510.63–2.810.82–5.32safer0.00–2.810.34–3.100.23–5.91
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.444.60safe1.11–3.211.31–3.572.42–6.77safer0.84–3.471.02–3.861.86–7.33
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.593.285.87safe1.15–4.021.73–4.842.88–8.86safer0.76–4.411.30–5.272.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.85–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 4.32 2.58–6.06 2.11–6.53 | 9.04 5.43–12.64 4.48–13.60 | 48% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 12.84 8.92–16.77 7.83–17.86 | 12.06 8.50–15.63 7.54–16.59 | 24.91 17.42–32.40 15.37–34.45 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.28 5.34–11.22 4.51–12.05 | 7.74 5.06–10.43 4.33–11.16 | 16.02 10.40–21.65 8.83–23.21 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 1.79–5.56 1.25–6.10 | 2.49 0.84–4.14 0.35–4.64 | 6.17 2.63–9.70 1.59–10.74 | 61% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.52 2.52–8.10 | 3.93 1.93–5.93 1.40–6.46 | 9.24 5.03–13.46 3.92–14.56 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 52.32 45.53–59.11 43.86–60.78 | 47.63 40.84–54.41 39.17–56.08 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–533 | 398 331–464 314–482 | 846 712–979 676–1015 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.66 72.63–80.69 71.34–81.98 | 75.90 71.57–80.22 70.26–81.53 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.95–14.63 8.20–15.38 | 12.97 10.02–15.91 9.27–16.66 | 24.75 18.97–30.54 17.47–32.04 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.19–2.51 0.00–2.81 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.84–3.47 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 4.60 2.42–6.77 1.86–7.33 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 3.28 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.27 | 5.87 2.88–8.86 2.07–9.68 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.