UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.062.50safe0.47–2.410.20–1.910.67–4.32safer0.22–2.660.00–2.140.19–4.80
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.748.85safe3.25–6.972.00–5.495.25–12.46safer2.76–7.461.54–5.954.29–13.41
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4211.0225.44safe10.49–18.347.46–14.5917.95–32.93safer9.40–19.436.50–15.5415.90–34.98
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.837.2017.03safe6.89–12.774.51–9.8811.40–22.65safer6.06–13.603.78–10.619.84–24.22
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.042.846.87safe2.16–5.921.18–4.493.34–10.41safer1.61–6.460.69–4.982.30–11.44
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.293.719.00safe3.08–7.501.71–5.714.78–13.21safer2.50–8.081.17–6.243.68–14.32
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction52.6847.03safe45.89–59.4740.25–53.82safer44.22–61.1438.58–55.49
Passes
62%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction470432902safe403–537365–498768–1035safer385–555348–516732–1071
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction78.2677.52safe74.23–82.2973.20–81.85safer72.94–83.5871.89–83.16
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3811.5023.88safe9.55–15.228.55–14.4418.10–29.66safer8.79–15.987.80–15.1916.59–31.17
Offsides
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.633.10safe0.30–2.620.54–2.730.84–5.35safer0.00–2.930.25–3.010.25–5.94
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.043.92safe0.83–2.930.91–3.171.75–6.10safer0.57–3.200.62–3.461.19–6.66
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
25%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.566.01safe1.02–3.892.00–5.113.02–9.00safer0.63–4.281.58–5.542.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.97 2.76–7.46 | 3.74 2.00–5.49 1.54–5.95 | 8.85 5.25–12.46 4.29–13.41 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.42 10.49–18.34 9.40–19.43 | 11.02 7.46–14.59 6.50–15.54 | 25.44 17.95–32.93 15.90–34.98 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.83 6.89–12.77 6.06–13.60 | 7.20 4.51–9.88 3.78–10.61 | 17.03 11.40–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.16–5.92 1.61–6.46 | 2.84 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 6.87 3.34–10.41 2.30–11.44 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.50 2.50–8.08 | 3.71 1.71–5.71 1.17–6.24 | 9.00 4.78–13.21 3.68–14.32 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 52.68 45.89–59.47 44.22–61.14 | 47.03 40.25–53.82 38.58–55.49 | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 470 403–537 385–555 | 432 365–498 348–516 | 902 768–1035 732–1071 | 62% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.26 74.23–82.29 72.94–83.58 | 77.52 73.20–81.85 71.89–83.16 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.55–15.22 8.79–15.98 | 11.50 8.55–14.44 7.80–15.19 | 23.88 18.10–29.66 16.59–31.17 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.93 | 1.63 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.01 | 3.10 0.84–5.35 0.25–5.94 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.92 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.56 2.00–5.11 1.58–5.54 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.21–9.82 | 25% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+