UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.692.91safe0.25–2.190.83–2.541.08–4.73safer0.00–2.440.60–2.770.61–5.21
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.879.00safe2.27–5.993.12–6.615.39–12.60safer1.78–6.482.66–7.074.44–13.56
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8313.1726.00safe8.91–16.769.61–16.7318.52–33.49safer7.82–17.858.65–17.6916.47–35.54
Shots in box
24%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.419.7617.18safe4.47–10.367.08–12.4411.55–22.80safer3.64–11.186.34–13.189.99–24.37
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.484.097.57safe1.59–5.362.44–5.754.03–11.10safer1.05–5.901.95–6.243.00–12.14
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.815.2310.03safe2.59–7.023.23–7.235.82–14.24safer2.02–7.592.69–7.764.71–15.35
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction47.2254.38safe40.43–54.0147.60–61.17safer38.76–55.6845.93–62.84
Passes
29%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction432496928safe365–499430–563795–1062safer347–518412–580759–1098
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction62.7673.80safe58.73–66.7969.47–78.12safer57.44–68.0968.16–79.43
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0510.6322.69safe9.22–14.897.69–13.5816.90–28.47safer8.46–15.656.94–14.3315.40–29.97
Offsides
32%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.153.89safe0.58–2.901.06–3.241.63–6.14safer0.28–3.200.77–3.531.04–6.73
Yellow cards
38%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.903.75safe0.80–2.900.77–3.031.57–5.93safer0.53–3.160.48–3.321.01–6.48
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.966.08safe1.69–4.561.40–4.523.09–9.08safer1.30–4.950.98–4.942.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.69 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 9.00 5.39–12.60 4.44–13.56 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.91–16.76 7.82–17.85 | 13.17 9.61–16.73 8.65–17.69 | 26.00 18.52–33.49 16.47–35.54 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 7.41 4.47–10.36 3.64–11.18 | 9.76 7.08–12.44 6.34–13.18 | 17.18 11.55–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 24% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.59–5.36 1.05–5.90 | 4.09 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.57 4.03–11.10 3.00–12.14 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.59–7.02 2.02–7.59 | 5.23 3.23–7.23 2.69–7.76 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 47.22 40.43–54.01 38.76–55.68 | 54.38 47.60–61.17 45.93–62.84 | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 432 365–499 347–518 | 496 430–563 412–580 | 928 795–1062 759–1098 | 29% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.76 58.73–66.79 57.44–68.09 | 73.80 69.47–78.12 68.16–79.43 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 12.05 9.22–14.89 8.46–15.65 | 10.63 7.69–13.58 6.94–14.33 | 22.69 16.90–28.47 15.40–29.97 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 2.15 1.06–3.24 0.77–3.53 | 3.89 1.63–6.14 1.04–6.73 | 32% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.48 | 38% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.69–4.56 1.30–4.95 | 2.96 1.40–4.52 0.98–4.94 | 6.08 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+