UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Pawel Raczkowski
Goals
34%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.352.56safe0.25–2.180.49–2.210.74–4.38safer0.00–2.440.24–2.460.23–4.89actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.834.369.19safe2.98–6.692.65–6.065.62–12.75safer2.48–7.192.18–6.534.66–13.72actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2012.3725.57safe9.50–16.908.99–15.7518.49–32.65safer8.47–17.938.06–16.6816.52–34.61actual16.0011.0027.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.428.2816.70safe5.90–10.935.98–10.5811.88–21.51safer5.04–11.805.18–11.3810.22–23.18actual6.008.0014.00
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.727.34safe2.04–5.202.30–5.134.34–10.34safer1.50–5.741.82–5.623.32–11.36actual5.002.007.00
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.7710.39safe3.42–7.832.79–6.756.21–14.58safer2.82–8.422.26–7.295.08–15.71actual10.003.0013.00
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.1646.94safe46.84–59.4840.62–53.26safer45.24–61.0739.03–54.86actual54.0046.00
Passes
64%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction462418880safe396–527353–483750–1009safer379–544336–500714–1045actual582368950
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction67.3268.89safe63.11–71.5464.38–73.39safer61.81–72.8463.05–74.72
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2911.8924.17safe9.43–15.158.94–14.8318.37–29.98safer8.55–16.038.02–15.7516.57–31.78actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
44%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.743.69safe0.74–3.160.57–2.901.32–6.06safer0.40–3.500.24–3.230.64–6.74actual1.004.005.00
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.554.74safe1.13–3.251.43–3.672.56–6.92safer0.86–3.521.14–3.962.00–7.48actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.025.87safe1.43–4.261.47–4.582.90–8.84safer1.05–4.651.04–5.012.08–9.66actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.00 | 1.35 0.49–2.21 0.24–2.46 | 2.00 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.23–4.89 | 3.00 | 34% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.98–6.69 2.48–7.19 | 5.00 | 4.36 2.65–6.06 2.18–6.53 | 3.00 | 9.19 5.62–12.75 4.66–13.72 | 8.00 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.20 9.50–16.90 8.47–17.93 | 16.00 | 12.37 8.99–15.75 8.06–16.68 | 11.00 | 25.57 18.49–32.65 16.52–34.61 | 27.00 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.90–10.93 5.04–11.80 | 6.00 | 8.28 5.98–10.58 5.18–11.38 | 8.00 | 16.70 11.88–21.51 10.22–23.18 | 14.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 2.04–5.20 1.50–5.74 | 5.00 | 3.72 2.30–5.13 1.82–5.62 | 2.00 | 7.34 4.34–10.34 3.32–11.36 | 7.00 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.42–7.83 2.82–8.42 | 10.00 | 4.77 2.79–6.75 2.26–7.29 | 3.00 | 10.39 6.21–14.58 5.08–15.71 | 13.00 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 53.16 46.84–59.48 45.24–61.07 | 54.00 | 46.94 40.62–53.26 39.03–54.86 | 46.00 | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 462 396–527 379–544 | 582 | 418 353–483 336–500 | 368 | 880 750–1009 714–1045 | 950 | 64% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.32 63.11–71.54 61.81–72.84 | — | 68.89 64.38–73.39 63.05–74.72 | — | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.43–15.15 8.55–16.03 | 14.00 | 11.89 8.94–14.83 8.02–15.75 | 13.00 | 24.17 18.37–29.98 16.57–31.78 | 27.00 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.40–3.50 | 1.00 | 1.74 0.57–2.90 0.24–3.23 | 4.00 | 3.69 1.32–6.06 0.64–6.74 | 5.00 | 44% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.13–3.25 0.86–3.52 | 3.00 | 2.55 1.43–3.67 1.14–3.96 | 3.00 | 4.74 2.56–6.92 2.00–7.48 | 6.00 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.89 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.43–4.26 1.05–4.65 | 1.00 | 3.02 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.01 | 4.00 | 5.87 2.90–8.84 2.08–9.66 | 5.00 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+