UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.052.75safe0.73–2.670.20–1.900.92–4.57safer0.48–2.920.00–2.130.44–5.05
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.569.33safe3.90–7.631.82–5.305.72–12.93safer3.41–8.121.35–5.774.77–13.89
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3310.3125.64safe11.40–19.256.75–13.8818.15–33.13safer10.31–20.345.79–14.8416.10–35.18
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.406.7118.11safe8.46–14.344.03–9.4012.49–23.74safer7.63–15.173.30–10.1310.92–25.30
Blocked shots
62%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.292.947.23safe2.41–6.171.29–4.593.69–10.76safer1.86–6.720.79–5.082.66–11.80
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.953.759.69safe3.73–8.161.75–5.755.48–13.91safer3.16–8.731.21–6.284.37–15.01
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction57.3643.84safe50.57–64.1537.06–50.63safer48.90–65.8235.38–52.30
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction516404920safe449–584337–470787–1054safer431–602320–488751–1090
Pass accuracy %
48%
46%
homeawayprediction75.0574.85safe71.02–79.0770.53–79.18safer69.72–80.3769.22–80.49
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0011.7022.69safe8.16–13.838.75–14.6416.91–28.48safer7.40–14.598.00–15.3915.41–29.98
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.503.49safe0.83–3.150.41–2.591.23–5.74safer0.53–3.450.12–2.880.64–6.33
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.913.55safe0.59–2.680.79–3.041.37–5.73safer0.32–2.950.49–3.330.81–6.28
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.403.595.98safe0.96–3.832.03–5.142.99–8.97safer0.57–4.221.60–5.572.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.05 0.20–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.75 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.77 3.90–7.63 3.41–8.12 | 3.56 1.82–5.30 1.35–5.77 | 9.33 5.72–12.93 4.77–13.89 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.33 11.40–19.25 10.31–20.34 | 10.31 6.75–13.88 5.79–14.84 | 25.64 18.15–33.13 16.10–35.18 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 11.40 8.46–14.34 7.63–15.17 | 6.71 4.03–9.40 3.30–10.13 | 18.11 12.49–23.74 10.92–25.30 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.41–6.17 1.86–6.72 | 2.94 1.29–4.59 0.79–5.08 | 7.23 3.69–10.76 2.66–11.80 | 62% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.95 3.73–8.16 3.16–8.73 | 3.75 1.75–5.75 1.21–6.28 | 9.69 5.48–13.91 4.37–15.01 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 57.36 50.57–64.15 48.90–65.82 | 43.84 37.06–50.63 35.38–52.30 | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 516 449–584 431–602 | 404 337–470 320–488 | 920 787–1054 751–1090 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.05 71.02–79.07 69.72–80.37 | 74.85 70.53–79.18 69.22–80.49 | — | 48% 46% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.16–13.83 7.40–14.59 | 11.70 8.75–14.64 8.00–15.39 | 22.69 16.91–28.48 15.41–29.98 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 1.50 0.41–2.59 0.12–2.88 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.59–2.68 0.32–2.95 | 1.91 0.79–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.81–6.28 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.96–3.83 0.57–4.22 | 3.59 2.03–5.14 1.60–5.57 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.18–9.79 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+