UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.402.82safe0.45–2.380.55–2.260.99–4.64safer0.19–2.630.32–2.490.51–5.12
Shots on target
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.829.71safe3.02–6.753.08–6.576.10–13.31safer2.53–7.242.61–7.035.15–14.27
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3113.3827.69safe10.38–18.239.82–16.9520.20–35.18safer9.29–19.328.86–17.9118.15–37.23
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.288.7218.00safe6.33–12.226.04–11.4112.38–23.62safer5.50–13.055.31–12.1410.81–25.19
Blocked shots
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.827.94safe2.24–6.002.17–5.474.40–11.47safer1.69–6.541.67–5.963.37–12.51
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.9110.26safe3.14–7.562.91–6.916.04–14.47safer2.56–8.142.37–7.444.93–15.58
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.2054.78safe39.41–52.9947.99–61.56safer37.74–54.6646.32–63.23
Passes
25%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction456535991safe389–523468–601857–1125safer371–541451–619822–1160
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.1174.66safe61.08–69.1470.34–78.99safer59.78–70.4369.03–80.30
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4111.3221.73safe7.57–13.258.38–14.2715.95–27.51safer6.82–14.007.63–15.0114.44–29.02
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.513.08safe0.41–2.730.42–2.600.83–5.34safer0.11–3.030.13–2.890.24–5.93
Yellow cards
32%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.903.48safe0.53–2.630.77–3.031.31–5.66safer0.27–2.900.48–3.320.75–6.22
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.310.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.316.35safe1.60–4.471.75–4.873.35–9.34safer1.21–4.861.33–5.292.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.82 0.99–4.64 0.51–5.12 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.02–6.75 2.53–7.24 | 4.82 3.08–6.57 2.61–7.03 | 9.71 6.10–13.31 5.15–14.27 | 44% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.31 10.38–18.23 9.29–19.32 | 13.38 9.82–16.95 8.86–17.91 | 27.69 20.20–35.18 18.15–37.23 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.28 6.33–12.22 5.50–13.05 | 8.72 6.04–11.41 5.31–12.14 | 18.00 12.38–23.62 10.81–25.19 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.24–6.00 1.69–6.54 | 3.82 2.17–5.47 1.67–5.96 | 7.94 4.40–11.47 3.37–12.51 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.56 2.56–8.14 | 4.91 2.91–6.91 2.37–7.44 | 10.26 6.04–14.47 4.93–15.58 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.20 39.41–52.99 37.74–54.66 | 54.78 47.99–61.56 46.32–63.23 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 456 389–523 371–541 | 535 468–601 451–619 | 991 857–1125 822–1160 | 25% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.11 61.08–69.14 59.78–70.43 | 74.66 70.34–78.99 69.03–80.30 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.41 7.57–13.25 6.82–14.00 | 11.32 8.38–14.27 7.63–15.01 | 21.73 15.95–27.51 14.44–29.02 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.51 0.42–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 3.08 0.83–5.34 0.24–5.93 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.48 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 32% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 3.31 1.75–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 6.35 3.35–9.34 2.54–10.15 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.