UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.152.80safe0.69–2.620.29–2.000.98–4.63safer0.44–2.880.06–2.230.50–5.11
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.299.70safe3.56–7.282.54–6.036.10–13.31safer3.07–7.772.08–6.495.14–14.26
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4811.1625.64safe10.56–18.417.59–14.7218.15–33.12safer9.46–19.506.63–15.6816.10–35.18
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.486.6217.11safe7.54–13.433.94–9.3011.48–22.73safer6.71–14.253.20–10.049.92–24.30
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.733.106.82safe1.85–5.611.44–4.753.29–10.36safer1.30–6.160.95–5.242.25–11.40
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.794.4410.23safe3.58–8.012.44–6.446.02–14.44safer3.00–8.581.90–6.974.91–15.55
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9851.16safe42.19–55.7744.38–57.95safer40.52–57.4442.71–59.62
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction459485944safe391–526419–552810–1078safer373–544401–569775–1114
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction67.8975.88safe63.86–71.9271.55–80.20safer62.57–73.2170.25–81.51
Fouls
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2210.3423.56safe10.38–16.067.39–13.2817.78–29.34safer9.63–16.816.64–14.0316.27–30.84
Offsides
56%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.303.41safe0.95–3.270.21–2.401.16–5.67safer0.65–3.570.00–2.680.57–6.26
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.913.80safe0.84–2.940.78–3.041.62–5.98safer0.57–3.200.49–3.331.06–6.53
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
31%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.536.32safe1.35–4.221.97–5.093.32–9.31safer0.96–4.611.55–5.512.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.62 0.44–2.88 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 49% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.42 3.56–7.28 3.07–7.77 | 4.29 2.54–6.03 2.08–6.49 | 9.70 6.10–13.31 5.14–14.26 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.48 10.56–18.41 9.46–19.50 | 11.16 7.59–14.72 6.63–15.68 | 25.64 18.15–33.12 16.10–35.18 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.54–13.43 6.71–14.25 | 6.62 3.94–9.30 3.20–10.04 | 17.11 11.48–22.73 9.92–24.30 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.30–6.16 | 3.10 1.44–4.75 0.95–5.24 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.40 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.79 3.58–8.01 3.00–8.58 | 4.44 2.44–6.44 1.90–6.97 | 10.23 6.02–14.44 4.91–15.55 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 48.98 42.19–55.77 40.52–57.44 | 51.16 44.38–57.95 42.71–59.62 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 459 391–526 373–544 | 485 419–552 401–569 | 944 810–1078 775–1114 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.89 63.86–71.92 62.57–73.21 | 75.88 71.55–80.20 70.25–81.51 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 13.22 10.38–16.06 9.63–16.81 | 10.34 7.39–13.28 6.64–14.03 | 23.56 17.78–29.34 16.27–30.84 | 69% 24% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.30 0.21–2.40 0.00–2.68 | 3.41 1.16–5.67 0.57–6.26 | 56% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.94 0.57–3.20 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.80 1.62–5.98 1.06–6.53 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.53 1.97–5.09 1.55–5.51 | 6.32 3.32–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 31% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.