UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
20%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.143.26safe1.15–3.090.28–1.991.43–5.08safer0.90–3.340.05–2.220.95–5.56
Shots on target
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.183.709.88safe4.32–8.041.96–5.446.27–13.48safer3.83–8.531.49–5.915.32–14.44
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction18.0610.6528.70safe14.13–21.987.09–14.2121.22–36.19safer13.04–23.076.13–15.1719.17–38.24
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.607.0318.62safe8.65–14.544.35–9.7113.00–24.25safer7.82–15.373.61–10.4411.43–25.81
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.747.29safe2.67–6.431.09–4.393.75–10.82safer2.12–6.980.59–4.882.72–11.86
Corners
67%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.454.5010.95safe4.23–8.662.50–6.506.73–15.16safer3.66–9.231.97–7.035.63–16.27
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.2445.54safe47.45–61.0338.76–52.33safer45.78–62.7037.09–54.00
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction519430948safe452–586363–496815–1082safer433–604346–514779–1118
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction76.6979.65safe72.67–80.7275.33–83.97safer71.37–82.0274.02–85.28
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9811.6323.61safe9.14–14.828.69–14.5717.83–29.39safer8.38–15.577.94–15.3216.32–30.89
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.383.14safe0.61–2.930.28–2.470.89–5.40safer0.30–3.230.00–2.760.30–5.98
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.753.09safe0.29–2.390.62–2.880.91–5.27safer0.03–2.660.33–3.170.35–5.82
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.314.146.45safe0.88–3.752.58–5.693.46–9.44safer0.49–4.142.16–6.122.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.12 1.15–3.09 0.90–3.34 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 3.26 1.43–5.08 0.95–5.56 | 60% 20% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.18 4.32–8.04 3.83–8.53 | 3.70 1.96–5.44 1.49–5.91 | 9.88 6.27–13.48 5.32–14.44 | 74% 17% |
| Total shots | 18.06 14.13–21.98 13.04–23.07 | 10.65 7.09–14.21 6.13–15.17 | 28.70 21.22–36.19 19.17–38.24 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.82–15.37 | 7.03 4.35–9.71 3.61–10.44 | 18.62 13.00–24.25 11.43–25.81 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.67–6.43 2.12–6.98 | 2.74 1.09–4.39 0.59–4.88 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.23–8.66 3.66–9.23 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.97–7.03 | 10.95 6.73–15.16 5.63–16.27 | 67% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.24 47.45–61.03 45.78–62.70 | 45.54 38.76–52.33 37.09–54.00 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 519 452–586 433–604 | 430 363–496 346–514 | 948 815–1082 779–1118 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.69 72.67–80.72 71.37–82.02 | 79.65 75.33–83.97 74.02–85.28 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.98 9.14–14.82 8.38–15.57 | 11.63 8.69–14.57 7.94–15.32 | 23.61 17.83–29.39 16.32–30.89 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.30–3.23 | 1.38 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.14 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.98 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.29–2.39 0.03–2.66 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.09 0.91–5.27 0.35–5.82 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.88–3.75 0.49–4.14 | 4.14 2.58–5.69 2.16–6.12 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 18% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+