UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.362.96safe0.64–2.580.50–2.211.14–4.79safer0.39–2.830.27–2.440.66–5.27
Shots on target
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.239.30safe3.21–6.932.48–5.975.69–12.90safer2.72–7.422.02–6.434.74–13.86
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2711.7928.06safe12.35–20.208.22–15.3520.57–35.55safer11.26–21.297.26–16.3118.52–37.60
Shots in box
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.118.4418.55safe7.16–13.055.76–11.1212.92–24.17safer6.34–13.885.02–11.8611.36–25.74
Blocked shots
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.663.348.00safe2.78–6.541.69–4.994.47–11.54safer2.24–7.091.20–5.493.43–12.57
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction6.064.8210.88safe3.84–8.272.82–6.826.67–15.09safer3.27–8.842.29–7.365.56–16.20
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.9444.72safe48.15–61.7337.93–51.50safer46.48–63.4036.26–53.17
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction535420955safe468–602354–487822–1089safer450–620336–504786–1125
Pass accuracy %
44%
50%
homeawayprediction70.3670.95safe66.33–74.3966.63–75.28safer65.03–75.6865.32–76.59
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0811.1821.26safe7.24–12.928.23–14.1215.48–27.04safer6.49–13.687.48–14.8713.97–28.55
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.592.96safe0.21–2.530.50–2.690.71–5.22safer0.00–2.830.21–2.970.12–5.81
Yellow cards
36%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.462.84safe0.33–2.430.33–2.590.66–5.02safer0.07–2.700.04–2.880.10–5.58
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.315.80safe1.06–3.931.75–4.862.81–8.80safer0.67–4.321.33–5.292.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 43% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.72–7.42 | 4.23 2.48–5.97 2.02–6.43 | 9.30 5.69–12.90 4.74–13.86 | 54% 33% |
| Total shots | 16.27 12.35–20.20 11.26–21.29 | 11.79 8.22–15.35 7.26–16.31 | 28.06 20.57–35.55 18.52–37.60 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.11 7.16–13.05 6.34–13.88 | 8.44 5.76–11.12 5.02–11.86 | 18.55 12.92–24.17 11.36–25.74 | 61% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.66 2.78–6.54 2.24–7.09 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.20–5.49 | 8.00 4.47–11.54 3.43–12.57 | 61% 26% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.84–8.27 3.27–8.84 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.29–7.36 | 10.88 6.67–15.09 5.56–16.20 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 54.94 48.15–61.73 46.48–63.40 | 44.72 37.93–51.50 36.26–53.17 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 535 468–602 450–620 | 420 354–487 336–504 | 955 822–1089 786–1125 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.36 66.33–74.39 65.03–75.68 | 70.95 66.63–75.28 65.32–76.59 | — | 44% 50% |
| Fouls | 10.08 7.24–12.92 6.49–13.68 | 11.18 8.23–14.12 7.48–14.87 | 21.26 15.48–27.04 13.97–28.55 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.83 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.97 | 2.96 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.81 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 0.33–2.43 0.07–2.70 | 1.46 0.33–2.59 0.04–2.88 | 2.84 0.66–5.02 0.10–5.58 | 36% 25% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.33–5.29 | 5.80 2.81–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+