UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.973.29safe0.35–2.291.11–2.821.46–5.11safer0.10–2.540.88–3.050.98–5.59
Shots on target
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.305.8310.13safe2.44–6.174.08–7.576.53–13.74safer1.95–6.663.62–8.045.57–14.69
Total shots
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1415.3627.50safe8.21–16.0611.80–18.9220.01–34.99safer7.12–17.1510.84–19.8817.96–37.04
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8310.7618.58safe4.88–10.778.08–13.4412.96–24.21safer4.05–11.607.34–14.1811.39–25.77
Blocked shots
25%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.364.738.09safe1.47–5.243.08–6.384.55–11.62safer0.93–5.782.59–6.883.52–12.66
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.4310.31safe2.67–7.093.43–7.436.09–14.52safer2.09–7.672.89–7.964.99–15.63
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.4850.79safe43.69–57.2744.00–57.57safer42.02–58.9442.33–59.24
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction444446890safe377–511379–512756–1024safer359–529362–530721–1059
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction78.3878.11safe74.35–82.4173.78–82.43safer73.05–83.7072.47–83.74
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2813.0524.34safe8.45–14.1210.11–16.0018.56–30.12safer7.69–14.889.36–16.7517.05–31.62
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.893.48safe0.43–2.750.80–2.981.22–5.73safer0.13–3.050.51–3.270.64–6.32
Yellow cards
40%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.683.44safe0.71–2.800.55–2.811.26–5.62safer0.44–3.070.26–3.100.70–6.17
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
63%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.142.786.92safe2.70–5.571.22–4.343.93–9.91safer2.31–5.960.80–4.763.11–10.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.97 1.11–2.82 0.88–3.05 | 3.29 1.46–5.11 0.98–5.59 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.44–6.17 1.95–6.66 | 5.83 4.08–7.57 3.62–8.04 | 10.13 6.53–13.74 5.57–14.69 | 26% 63% |
| Total shots | 12.14 8.21–16.06 7.12–17.15 | 15.36 11.80–18.92 10.84–19.88 | 27.50 20.01–34.99 17.96–37.04 | 24% 70% |
| Shots in box | 7.83 4.88–10.77 4.05–11.60 | 10.76 8.08–13.44 7.34–14.18 | 18.58 12.96–24.21 11.39–25.77 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 1.47–5.24 0.93–5.78 | 4.73 3.08–6.38 2.59–6.88 | 8.09 4.55–11.62 3.52–12.66 | 25% 62% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.09 2.09–7.67 | 5.43 3.43–7.43 2.89–7.96 | 10.31 6.09–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 50.48 43.69–57.27 42.02–58.94 | 50.79 44.00–57.57 42.33–59.24 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 444 377–511 359–529 | 446 379–512 362–530 | 890 756–1024 721–1059 | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.38 74.35–82.41 73.05–83.70 | 78.11 73.78–82.43 72.47–83.74 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.45–14.12 7.69–14.88 | 13.05 10.11–16.00 9.36–16.75 | 24.34 18.56–30.12 17.05–31.62 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 1.89 0.80–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.71–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.17 | 40% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 4.14 2.70–5.57 2.31–5.96 | 2.78 1.22–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 6.92 3.93–9.91 3.11–10.72 | 63% 14% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+