UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
24%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.672.77safe0.13–2.060.82–2.530.95–4.59safer0.00–2.310.59–2.760.47–5.07
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.695.218.90safe1.83–5.553.46–6.955.29–12.50safer1.34–6.043.00–7.414.34–13.46
Total shots
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1714.2625.44safe7.25–15.1010.70–17.8217.95–32.92safer6.16–16.199.74–18.7815.90–34.97
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.809.4316.23safe3.86–9.756.75–12.1110.61–21.86safer3.03–10.586.01–12.859.04–23.42
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.977.08safe1.22–4.992.32–5.633.54–10.61safer0.68–5.531.83–6.122.51–11.65
Corners
42%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.095.2610.35safe2.87–7.303.26–7.266.13–14.56safer2.30–7.882.73–7.795.03–15.67
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.3547.47safe46.56–60.1440.68–54.25safer44.89–61.8139.01–55.92
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction469412881safe402–536346–479748–1015safer384–555328–496712–1051
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction79.6775.51safe75.64–83.7071.18–79.83safer74.35–84.9969.87–81.14
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6713.0624.74safe8.84–14.5110.12–16.0118.96–30.52safer8.08–15.279.37–16.7617.45–32.03
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.893.46safe0.40–2.720.80–2.991.20–5.71safer0.10–3.030.51–3.280.62–6.30
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.943.89safe0.91–3.000.81–3.071.72–6.07safer0.64–3.270.52–3.361.16–6.63
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.566.23safe2.23–5.111.00–4.123.24–9.22safer1.85–5.490.58–4.542.43–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.13–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.67 0.82–2.53 0.59–2.76 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 25% 24% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.69 1.83–5.55 1.34–6.04 | 5.21 3.46–6.95 3.00–7.41 | 8.90 5.29–12.50 4.34–13.46 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.17 7.25–15.10 6.16–16.19 | 14.26 10.70–17.82 9.74–18.78 | 25.44 17.95–32.92 15.90–34.97 | 24% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.80 3.86–9.75 3.03–10.58 | 9.43 6.75–12.11 6.01–12.85 | 16.23 10.61–21.86 9.04–23.42 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.11 1.22–4.99 0.68–5.53 | 3.97 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 7.08 3.54–10.61 2.51–11.65 | 30% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.87–7.30 2.30–7.88 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.73–7.79 | 10.35 6.13–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 42% 46% |
| Possession % | 53.35 46.56–60.14 44.89–61.81 | 47.47 40.68–54.25 39.01–55.92 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 469 402–536 384–555 | 412 346–479 328–496 | 881 748–1015 712–1051 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.67 75.64–83.70 74.35–84.99 | 75.51 71.18–79.83 69.87–81.14 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.84–14.51 8.08–15.27 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.37–16.76 | 24.74 18.96–30.52 17.45–32.03 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.10–3.03 | 1.89 0.80–2.99 0.51–3.28 | 3.46 1.20–5.71 0.62–6.30 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.89 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.67 2.23–5.11 1.85–5.49 | 2.56 1.00–4.12 0.58–4.54 | 6.23 3.24–9.22 2.43–10.03 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.