UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.102.62safe0.56–2.490.24–1.950.80–4.45safer0.30–2.740.02–2.180.32–4.93
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.979.12safe3.28–7.012.23–5.725.52–12.73safer2.79–7.501.77–6.184.56–13.68
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9011.4727.37safe11.97–19.827.91–15.0319.88–34.85safer10.88–20.916.95–15.9917.83–36.90
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.227.2917.51safe7.28–13.164.61–9.9711.89–23.14safer6.45–13.993.87–10.7110.32–24.70
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.487.80safe2.44–6.201.82–5.134.26–11.33safer1.89–6.741.33–5.623.23–12.37
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.119.97safe3.64–8.072.11–6.115.75–14.18safer3.07–8.641.58–6.654.65–15.29
Possession %
44%
52%
homeawayprediction49.9251.67safe43.13–56.7244.88–58.45safer41.46–58.3843.21–60.12
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction420464884safe352–487398–531750–1018safer334–505380–548715–1053
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction71.8177.01safe67.78–75.8472.69–81.34safer66.49–77.1471.38–82.65
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1211.0224.14safe10.28–15.968.08–13.9718.36–29.92safer9.53–16.717.33–14.7216.86–31.43
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.873.45safe0.42–2.740.78–2.971.20–5.71safer0.12–3.040.49–3.260.61–6.30
Yellow cards
37%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.124.12safe0.95–3.040.99–3.251.94–6.29safer0.68–3.310.70–3.541.38–6.85
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.556.22safe1.23–4.102.00–5.113.23–9.21safer0.84–4.491.57–5.532.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.28–7.01 2.79–7.50 | 3.97 2.23–5.72 1.77–6.18 | 9.12 5.52–12.73 4.56–13.68 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 15.90 11.97–19.82 10.88–20.91 | 11.47 7.91–15.03 6.95–15.99 | 27.37 19.88–34.85 17.83–36.90 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.22 7.28–13.16 6.45–13.99 | 7.29 4.61–9.97 3.87–10.71 | 17.51 11.89–23.14 10.32–24.70 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 3.48 1.82–5.13 1.33–5.62 | 7.80 4.26–11.33 3.23–12.37 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.07 3.07–8.64 | 4.11 2.11–6.11 1.58–6.65 | 9.97 5.75–14.18 4.65–15.29 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 49.92 43.13–56.72 41.46–58.38 | 51.67 44.88–58.45 43.21–60.12 | — | 44% 52% |
| Passes | 420 352–487 334–505 | 464 398–531 380–548 | 884 750–1018 715–1053 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.81 67.78–75.84 66.49–77.14 | 77.01 72.69–81.34 71.38–82.65 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.12 10.28–15.96 9.53–16.71 | 11.02 8.08–13.97 7.33–14.72 | 24.14 18.36–29.92 16.86–31.43 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.87 0.78–2.97 0.49–3.26 | 3.45 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.12 1.94–6.29 1.38–6.85 | 37% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.55 2.00–5.11 1.57–5.53 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.