UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.502.73safe0.26–2.200.64–2.350.90–4.55safer0.01–2.450.41–2.580.42–5.03
Shots on target
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.879.61safe2.89–6.613.12–6.616.01–13.22safer2.40–7.102.66–7.075.05–14.18
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6513.6229.27safe11.72–19.5710.06–17.1821.78–36.75safer10.63–20.669.10–18.1419.73–38.81
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.478.7418.21safe6.53–12.426.06–11.4212.59–23.84safer5.70–13.255.32–12.1611.02–25.40
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.248.33safe2.20–5.972.59–5.904.79–11.86safer1.66–6.512.10–6.393.76–12.90
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.8710.22safe3.14–7.562.87–6.876.01–14.44safer2.56–8.142.34–7.414.90–15.54
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction44.3156.49safe37.52–51.1049.70–63.27safer35.85–52.7748.03–64.94
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction382493875safe315–449426–559741–1008safer296–467409–577705–1044
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction65.0973.08safe61.06–69.1268.76–77.41safer59.77–70.4167.45–78.71
Fouls
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1610.0822.24safe9.33–15.007.13–13.0216.46–28.02safer8.57–15.766.38–13.7714.95–29.53
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.783.65safe0.71–3.030.69–2.881.40–5.91safer0.41–3.330.40–3.170.81–6.50
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.933.85safe0.87–2.970.80–3.061.67–6.03safer0.60–3.230.51–3.351.11–6.59
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.186.37safe1.75–4.631.62–4.733.38–9.36safer1.37–5.011.20–5.162.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 31% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.89–6.61 2.40–7.10 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 9.61 6.01–13.22 5.05–14.18 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 15.65 11.72–19.57 10.63–20.66 | 13.62 10.06–17.18 9.10–18.14 | 29.27 21.78–36.75 19.73–38.81 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.47 6.53–12.42 5.70–13.25 | 8.74 6.06–11.42 5.32–12.16 | 18.21 12.59–23.84 11.02–25.40 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.20–5.97 1.66–6.51 | 4.24 2.59–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 8.33 4.79–11.86 3.76–12.90 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.56 2.56–8.14 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.34–7.41 | 10.22 6.01–14.44 4.90–15.54 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 44.31 37.52–51.10 35.85–52.77 | 56.49 49.70–63.27 48.03–64.94 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 382 315–449 296–467 | 493 426–559 409–577 | 875 741–1008 705–1044 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.09 61.06–69.12 59.77–70.41 | 73.08 68.76–77.41 67.45–78.71 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.33–15.00 8.57–15.76 | 10.08 7.13–13.02 6.38–13.77 | 22.24 16.46–28.02 14.95–29.53 | 63% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.78 0.69–2.88 0.40–3.17 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.23 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.85 1.67–6.03 1.11–6.59 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.75–4.63 1.37–5.01 | 3.18 1.62–4.73 1.20–5.16 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+