UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Manfredas Lukjancukas · Lithuania
Goals
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.723.19safe0.50–2.430.86–2.581.36–5.01safer0.24–2.690.61–2.830.86–5.52actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.665.5510.21safe2.80–6.513.84–7.256.64–13.77safer2.30–7.013.37–7.725.68–14.74actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
31%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4015.6329.04safe9.70–17.1112.25–19.0121.95–36.12safer8.67–18.1411.32–19.9419.99–38.08actual11.0023.0034.00
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4910.3318.82safe5.97–11.008.03–12.6314.00–23.64safer5.11–11.877.23–13.4312.34–25.30actual7.0017.0024.00
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.164.318.47safe2.58–5.752.89–5.725.47–11.47safer2.04–6.282.41–6.214.45–12.49actual4.007.0011.00
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.205.5510.75safe2.99–7.403.57–7.536.56–14.93safer2.40–8.003.03–8.075.43–16.06actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction41.9857.27safe35.67–48.3050.95–63.58safer34.07–49.9049.35–65.18actual38.0062.00
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction360472831safe294–425407–536701–961safer277–443390–554666–996actual286462748
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction64.8872.41safe60.66–69.1067.90–76.92safer59.36–70.4066.57–78.25actual66.0083.00
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3211.6422.96safe8.46–14.188.70–14.5917.16–28.77safer7.58–15.067.78–15.5115.36–30.57actual12.006.0018.00
Offsides
57%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.393.65safe1.05–3.470.22–2.551.28–6.02safer0.71–3.810.00–2.880.60–6.70actual1.004.005.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.194.29safe1.05–3.161.07–3.312.12–6.47safer0.78–3.430.78–3.601.56–7.03actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
56%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.762.896.66safe2.35–5.181.34–4.453.69–9.62safer1.96–5.570.91–4.882.87–10.45actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.69 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.86–2.58 0.61–2.83 | 0.00 | 3.19 1.36–5.01 0.86–5.52 | 0.00 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.51 2.30–7.01 | 4.00 | 5.55 3.84–7.25 3.37–7.72 | 5.00 | 10.21 6.64–13.77 5.68–14.74 | 9.00 | 33% 55% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.70–17.11 8.67–18.14 | 11.00 | 15.63 12.25–19.01 11.32–19.94 | 23.00 | 29.04 21.95–36.12 19.99–38.08 | 34.00 | 31% 63% |
| Shots in box | 8.49 5.97–11.00 5.11–11.87 | 7.00 | 10.33 8.03–12.63 7.23–13.43 | 17.00 | 18.82 14.00–23.64 12.34–25.30 | 24.00 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.58–5.75 2.04–6.28 | 4.00 | 4.31 2.89–5.72 2.41–6.21 | 7.00 | 8.47 5.47–11.47 4.45–12.49 | 11.00 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.40 2.40–8.00 | 5.00 | 5.55 3.57–7.53 3.03–8.07 | 4.00 | 10.75 6.56–14.93 5.43–16.06 | 9.00 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 41.98 35.67–48.30 34.07–49.90 | 38.00 | 57.27 50.95–63.58 49.35–65.18 | 62.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 360 294–425 277–443 | 286 | 472 407–536 390–554 | 462 | 831 701–961 666–996 | 748 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.88 60.66–69.10 59.36–70.40 | 66.00 | 72.41 67.90–76.92 66.57–78.25 | 83.00 | — | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 11.32 8.46–14.18 7.58–15.06 | 12.00 | 11.64 8.70–14.59 7.78–15.51 | 6.00 | 22.96 17.16–28.77 15.36–30.57 | 18.00 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.05–3.47 0.71–3.81 | 1.00 | 1.39 0.22–2.55 0.00–2.88 | 4.00 | 3.65 1.28–6.02 0.60–6.70 | 5.00 | 57% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.05–3.16 0.78–3.43 | 1.00 | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | 0.00 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 1.00 | 39% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.76 2.35–5.18 1.96–5.57 | 5.00 | 2.89 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.88 | 4.00 | 6.66 3.69–9.62 2.87–10.45 | 9.00 | 56% 15% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.