UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.012.44safe0.46–2.400.16–1.870.62–4.26safer0.21–2.650.00–2.100.14–4.74
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.228.08safe3.00–6.721.48–4.964.47–11.68safer2.51–7.211.01–5.433.52–12.64
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5110.1125.62safe11.58–19.436.55–13.6718.13–33.10safer10.49–20.525.59–14.6316.08–35.15
Shots in box
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.616.2515.86safe6.67–12.563.57–8.9310.24–21.48safer5.84–13.392.83–9.678.67–23.05
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.742.576.31safe1.85–5.620.92–4.222.77–9.84safer1.31–6.160.42–4.711.73–10.88
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.003.849.84safe3.79–8.211.84–5.845.63–14.06safer3.21–8.791.31–6.384.52–15.16
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction52.4948.85safe45.70–59.2842.07–55.64safer44.03–60.9540.40–57.31
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction445405850safe378–512338–471716–983safer359–530321–489680–1019
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction71.2873.48safe67.26–75.3169.16–77.80safer65.96–76.6167.85–79.11
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0314.2526.28safe9.19–14.8711.31–17.2020.50–32.07safer8.44–15.6210.56–17.9519.00–33.57
Offsides
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.222.66safe0.29–2.610.12–2.310.41–4.92safer0.00–2.910.00–2.600.00–5.51
Yellow cards
37%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.134.13safe0.95–3.051.00–3.261.95–6.31safer0.69–3.320.71–3.551.40–6.87
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
28%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.273.135.40safe0.83–3.711.58–4.692.41–8.40safer0.45–4.091.15–5.111.60–9.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.01 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 47% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.72 2.51–7.21 | 3.22 1.48–4.96 1.01–5.43 | 8.08 4.47–11.68 3.52–12.64 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 15.51 11.58–19.43 10.49–20.52 | 10.11 6.55–13.67 5.59–14.63 | 25.62 18.13–33.10 16.08–35.15 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 9.61 6.67–12.56 5.84–13.39 | 6.25 3.57–8.93 2.83–9.67 | 15.86 10.24–21.48 8.67–23.05 | 76% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.85–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 2.57 0.92–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 6.31 2.77–9.84 1.73–10.88 | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.79–8.21 3.21–8.79 | 3.84 1.84–5.84 1.31–6.38 | 9.84 5.63–14.06 4.52–15.16 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 52.49 45.70–59.28 44.03–60.95 | 48.85 42.07–55.64 40.40–57.31 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 445 378–512 359–530 | 405 338–471 321–489 | 850 716–983 680–1019 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.28 67.26–75.31 65.96–76.61 | 73.48 69.16–77.80 67.85–79.11 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 12.03 9.19–14.87 8.44–15.62 | 14.25 11.31–17.20 10.56–17.95 | 26.28 20.50–32.07 19.00–33.57 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.22 0.12–2.31 0.00–2.60 | 2.66 0.41–4.92 0.00–5.51 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.69–3.32 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 37% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.83–3.71 0.45–4.09 | 3.13 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 5.40 2.41–8.40 1.60–9.21 | 28% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+