UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jeremie Pignard · France
Goals
26%
26%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.021.482.49safe0.05–1.980.62–2.340.67–4.32safer0.00–2.240.37–2.580.16–4.82actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.668.80safe2.29–6.002.95–6.365.24–12.36safer1.79–6.502.48–6.834.27–13.33actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0713.3625.44safe8.37–15.789.98–16.7418.35–32.52safer7.34–16.819.05–17.6716.39–34.48actual20.0011.0031.00
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.719.0416.76safe5.20–10.236.74–11.3511.94–21.58safer4.33–11.095.95–12.1410.28–23.24actual15.007.0022.00
Blocked shots
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.884.487.36safe1.30–4.473.07–5.894.36–10.36safer0.76–5.002.58–6.383.34–11.38actual4.006.0010.00
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.545.069.60safe2.34–6.753.09–7.045.42–13.79safer1.74–7.342.55–7.584.29–14.92actual11.005.0016.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.0860.78safe32.77–45.4054.46–67.10safer31.17–47.0052.87–68.70actual45.0055.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction329496825safe263–394432–561695–955safer246–412414–579660–990actual380490870
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction65.7381.06safe61.51–69.9476.55–85.57safer60.21–71.2475.22–86.90actual78.0082.00
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5812.4924.07safe8.72–14.449.55–15.4418.27–29.87safer7.84–15.328.63–16.3616.47–31.68actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.172.88safe0.50–2.920.01–2.330.51–5.25safer0.16–3.270.00–2.660.00–5.93actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.394.70safe1.25–3.361.27–3.512.52–6.87safer0.98–3.630.98–3.801.96–7.43actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.665.38safe1.31–4.141.10–4.212.42–8.35safer0.93–4.530.67–4.641.60–9.17actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 0.05–1.98 0.00–2.24 | 1.00 | 1.48 0.62–2.34 0.37–2.58 | 0.00 | 2.49 0.67–4.32 0.16–4.82 | 1.00 | 26% 26% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.29–6.00 1.79–6.50 | 5.00 | 4.66 2.95–6.36 2.48–6.83 | 2.00 | 8.80 5.24–12.36 4.27–13.33 | 7.00 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.37–15.78 7.34–16.81 | 20.00 | 13.36 9.98–16.74 9.05–17.67 | 11.00 | 25.44 18.35–32.52 16.39–34.48 | 31.00 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.71 5.20–10.23 4.33–11.09 | 15.00 | 9.04 6.74–11.35 5.95–12.14 | 7.00 | 16.76 11.94–21.58 10.28–23.24 | 22.00 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 2.88 1.30–4.47 0.76–5.00 | 4.00 | 4.48 3.07–5.89 2.58–6.38 | 6.00 | 7.36 4.36–10.36 3.34–11.38 | 10.00 | 22% 66% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.34–6.75 1.74–7.34 | 11.00 | 5.06 3.09–7.04 2.55–7.58 | 5.00 | 9.60 5.42–13.79 4.29–14.92 | 16.00 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 39.08 32.77–45.40 31.17–47.00 | 45.00 | 60.78 54.46–67.10 52.87–68.70 | 55.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 329 263–394 246–412 | 380 | 496 432–561 414–579 | 490 | 825 695–955 660–990 | 870 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.73 61.51–69.94 60.21–71.24 | 78.00 | 81.06 76.55–85.57 75.22–86.90 | 82.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 11.58 8.72–14.44 7.84–15.32 | 14.00 | 12.49 9.55–15.44 8.63–16.36 | 13.00 | 24.07 18.27–29.87 16.47–31.68 | 27.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.16–3.27 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.01–2.33 0.00–2.66 | 0.00 | 2.88 0.51–5.25 0.00–5.93 | 1.00 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.25–3.36 0.98–3.63 | 3.00 | 2.39 1.27–3.51 0.98–3.80 | 2.00 | 4.70 2.52–6.87 1.96–7.43 | 5.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.93–4.53 | 2.00 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 4.00 | 5.38 2.42–8.35 1.60–9.17 | 6.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+