UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.360.992.35safe0.39–2.320.14–1.850.53–4.17safer0.14–2.570.00–2.080.05–4.65
Shots on target
59%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.377.92safe2.69–6.411.62–5.114.31–11.52safer2.20–6.901.16–5.583.36–12.48
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7810.9424.72safe9.86–17.717.38–14.5017.24–32.21safer8.77–18.806.42–15.4615.19–34.26
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.366.4815.84safe6.42–12.303.79–9.1610.21–21.46safer5.59–13.133.06–9.898.65–23.03
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.136.35safe1.34–5.101.48–4.782.81–9.89safer0.79–5.650.99–5.281.78–10.92
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.349.59safe3.04–7.472.34–6.345.38–13.81safer2.47–8.041.80–6.874.27–14.91
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.7151.17safe42.92–56.5044.38–57.95safer41.25–58.1742.71–59.62
Passes
45%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction429442871safe361–496376–509737–1005safer343–514358–526702–1040
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction70.7777.36safe66.74–74.7973.03–81.68safer65.44–76.0971.72–82.99
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5512.4323.98safe8.72–14.399.48–15.3718.20–29.76safer7.96–15.158.74–16.1216.70–31.27
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.253.15safe0.74–3.060.15–2.340.89–5.40safer0.44–3.360.00–2.630.30–5.99
Yellow cards
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.803.83safe0.98–3.080.67–2.931.65–6.01safer0.71–3.340.38–3.221.09–6.56
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.015.36safe0.91–3.781.46–4.572.37–8.35safer0.52–4.171.03–4.991.56–9.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.57 | 0.99 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.35 0.53–4.17 0.05–4.65 | 45% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.41 2.20–6.90 | 3.37 1.62–5.11 1.16–5.58 | 7.92 4.31–11.52 3.36–12.48 | 59% 13% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.78 9.86–17.71 8.77–18.80 | 10.94 7.38–14.50 6.42–15.46 | 24.72 17.24–32.21 15.19–34.26 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.36 6.42–12.30 5.59–13.13 | 6.48 3.79–9.16 3.06–9.89 | 15.84 10.21–21.46 8.65–23.03 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.34–5.10 0.79–5.65 | 3.13 1.48–4.78 0.99–5.28 | 6.35 2.81–9.89 1.78–10.92 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.04–7.47 2.47–8.04 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.80–6.87 | 9.59 5.38–13.81 4.27–14.91 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 49.71 42.92–56.50 41.25–58.17 | 51.17 44.38–57.95 42.71–59.62 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 429 361–496 343–514 | 442 376–509 358–526 | 871 737–1005 702–1040 | 45% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.77 66.74–74.79 65.44–76.09 | 77.36 73.03–81.68 71.72–82.99 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.72–14.39 7.96–15.15 | 12.43 9.48–15.37 8.74–16.12 | 23.98 18.20–29.76 16.70–31.27 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.25 0.15–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 3.15 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 1.80 0.67–2.93 0.38–3.22 | 3.83 1.65–6.01 1.09–6.56 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.91–3.78 0.52–4.17 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–4.99 | 5.36 2.37–8.35 1.56–9.17 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+