UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.790.992.78safe0.82–2.750.14–1.850.96–4.60safer0.57–3.000.00–2.080.48–5.08
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.363.809.16safe3.50–7.222.06–5.545.56–12.77safer3.01–7.711.59–6.014.60–13.72
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6611.7825.45safe9.74–17.598.22–15.3517.96–32.93safer8.65–18.687.26–16.3115.91–34.98
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.577.2416.80safe6.62–12.514.55–9.9211.18–22.42safer5.79–13.343.82–10.659.61–23.99
Blocked shots
55%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.056.92safe1.99–5.761.40–4.703.39–10.46safer1.45–6.300.90–5.192.35–11.50
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.5510.47safe3.70–8.132.55–6.556.25–14.68safer3.13–8.702.02–7.095.15–15.79
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.9848.03safe46.19–59.7741.25–54.82safer44.52–61.4439.58–56.49
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction433408840safe365–500341–474707–974safer347–518324–492671–1010
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction73.0575.19safe69.02–77.0870.87–79.51safer67.73–78.3869.56–80.82
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0812.8825.96safe10.24–15.929.94–15.8320.18–31.74safer9.49–16.679.19–16.5718.67–33.25
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.503.48safe0.82–3.140.41–2.591.23–5.74safer0.52–3.440.12–2.880.64–6.32
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.234.05safe0.77–2.871.10–3.361.87–6.23safer0.51–3.140.81–3.651.32–6.79
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.416.36safe1.51–4.381.86–4.973.36–9.35safer1.12–4.771.43–5.392.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.75 0.57–3.00 | 0.99 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.22 3.01–7.71 | 3.80 2.06–5.54 1.59–6.01 | 9.16 5.56–12.77 4.60–13.72 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 13.66 9.74–17.59 8.65–18.68 | 11.78 8.22–15.35 7.26–16.31 | 25.45 17.96–32.93 15.91–34.98 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.57 6.62–12.51 5.79–13.34 | 7.24 4.55–9.92 3.82–10.65 | 16.80 11.18–22.42 9.61–23.99 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.99–5.76 1.45–6.30 | 3.05 1.40–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 6.92 3.39–10.46 2.35–11.50 | 55% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.13 3.13–8.70 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.02–7.09 | 10.47 6.25–14.68 5.15–15.79 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 52.98 46.19–59.77 44.52–61.44 | 48.03 41.25–54.82 39.58–56.49 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 433 365–500 347–518 | 408 341–474 324–492 | 840 707–974 671–1010 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.05 69.02–77.08 67.73–78.38 | 75.19 70.87–79.51 69.56–80.82 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.24–15.92 9.49–16.67 | 12.88 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.57 | 25.96 20.18–31.74 18.67–33.25 | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.50 0.41–2.59 0.12–2.88 | 3.48 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.32 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.51–3.14 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 6.36 3.36–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.