Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.272.92safe0.68–2.610.42–2.131.09–4.74safer0.43–2.870.19–2.350.61–5.22
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.199.67safe3.62–7.352.45–5.936.07–13.28safer3.13–7.841.98–6.405.11–14.24
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5610.7226.28safe11.64–19.497.16–14.2818.80–33.77safer10.55–20.586.20–15.2416.75–35.82
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.457.3117.76safe7.50–13.394.63–9.9912.14–23.38safer6.67–14.223.90–10.7310.57–24.95
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.763.067.82safe2.88–6.641.41–4.724.29–11.36safer2.33–7.180.92–5.213.25–12.39
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.433.7910.22safe4.22–8.641.79–5.796.01–14.44safer3.64–9.221.26–6.334.90–15.54
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.5446.26safe47.75–61.3339.47–53.04safer46.08–63.0037.80–54.72
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5644631027safe497–631396–529893–1161safer479–649379–547858–1196
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction80.6982.19safe76.66–84.7277.86–86.51safer75.37–86.0176.56–87.82
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7110.3321.04safe7.87–13.547.39–13.2815.26–26.82safer7.11–14.306.64–14.0313.75–28.33
Offsides
55%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.341.553.90safe1.18–3.500.46–2.651.64–6.15safer0.88–3.800.17–2.941.05–6.74
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.833.49safe0.61–2.710.70–2.961.31–5.67safer0.35–2.980.41–3.250.75–6.23
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.696.37safe1.24–4.112.13–5.243.37–9.36safer0.86–4.501.71–5.672.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.35 | 2.92 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.48 3.62–7.35 3.13–7.84 | 4.19 2.45–5.93 1.98–6.40 | 9.67 6.07–13.28 5.11–14.24 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.56 11.64–19.49 10.55–20.58 | 10.72 7.16–14.28 6.20–15.24 | 26.28 18.80–33.77 16.75–35.82 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.45 7.50–13.39 6.67–14.22 | 7.31 4.63–9.99 3.90–10.73 | 17.76 12.14–23.38 10.57–24.95 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.88–6.64 2.33–7.18 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 7.82 4.29–11.36 3.25–12.39 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.43 4.22–8.64 3.64–9.22 | 3.79 1.79–5.79 1.26–6.33 | 10.22 6.01–14.44 4.90–15.54 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 54.54 47.75–61.33 46.08–63.00 | 46.26 39.47–53.04 37.80–54.72 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 564 497–631 479–649 | 463 396–529 379–547 | 1027 893–1161 858–1196 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.69 76.66–84.72 75.37–86.01 | 82.19 77.86–86.51 76.56–87.82 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 10.71 7.87–13.54 7.11–14.30 | 10.33 7.39–13.28 6.64–14.03 | 21.04 15.26–26.82 13.75–28.33 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.34 1.18–3.50 0.88–3.80 | 1.55 0.46–2.65 0.17–2.94 | 3.90 1.64–6.15 1.05–6.74 | 55% 20% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.35–2.98 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.49 1.31–5.67 0.75–6.23 | 35% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.11 0.86–4.50 | 3.69 2.13–5.24 1.71–5.67 | 6.37 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+