UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.400.833.23safe1.44–3.370.00–1.681.41–5.06safer1.18–3.620.00–1.910.93–5.54
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.642.759.39safe4.78–8.501.01–4.505.79–13.00safer4.29–8.990.54–4.964.83–13.95
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.758.3027.04safe14.82–22.674.73–11.8619.56–34.53safer13.73–23.773.77–12.8217.51–36.58
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.495.3116.80safe8.54–14.432.63–7.9911.17–22.42safer7.71–15.261.89–8.739.61–23.99
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction5.201.997.19safe3.32–7.080.34–3.653.66–10.73safer2.78–7.630.00–4.142.62–11.77
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.053.2210.27safe4.84–9.261.22–5.226.06–14.49safer4.26–9.840.69–5.764.95–15.59
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.9034.46safe60.11–73.6927.67–41.24safer58.44–75.3626.00–42.91
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction642354995safe574–709287–420861–1129safer556–727270–438826–1164
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction90.4376.74safe86.40–94.4672.42–81.07safer85.11–95.7571.11–82.38
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8010.4521.26safe7.97–13.647.51–13.4015.47–27.04safer7.21–14.406.76–14.1513.97–28.54
Offsides
39%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.723.45safe0.57–2.890.62–2.811.19–5.70safer0.27–3.190.34–3.100.61–6.29
Yellow cards
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.903.14safe0.19–2.290.77–3.030.96–5.32safer0.00–2.560.48–3.320.40–5.88
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction2.104.206.30safe0.66–3.542.65–5.763.31–9.30safer0.28–3.922.22–6.182.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.40 1.44–3.37 1.18–3.62 | 0.83 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.91 | 3.23 1.41–5.06 0.93–5.54 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.64 4.78–8.50 4.29–8.99 | 2.75 1.01–4.50 0.54–4.96 | 9.39 5.79–13.00 4.83–13.95 | 87% |
| Total shots | 18.75 14.82–22.67 13.73–23.77 | 8.30 4.73–11.86 3.77–12.82 | 27.04 19.56–34.53 17.51–36.58 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 11.49 8.54–14.43 7.71–15.26 | 5.31 2.63–7.99 1.89–8.73 | 16.80 11.17–22.42 9.61–23.99 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 5.20 3.32–7.08 2.78–7.63 | 1.99 0.34–3.65 0.00–4.14 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.77 | 85% |
| Corners | 7.05 4.84–9.26 4.26–9.84 | 3.22 1.22–5.22 0.69–5.76 | 10.27 6.06–14.49 4.95–15.59 | 85% |
| Possession % | 66.90 60.11–73.69 58.44–75.36 | 34.46 27.67–41.24 26.00–42.91 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 642 574–709 556–727 | 354 287–420 270–438 | 995 861–1129 826–1164 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 90.43 86.40–94.46 85.11–95.75 | 76.74 72.42–81.07 71.11–82.38 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.80 7.97–13.64 7.21–14.40 | 10.45 7.51–13.40 6.76–14.15 | 21.26 15.47–27.04 13.97–28.54 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 1.72 0.62–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.45 1.19–5.70 0.61–6.29 | 39% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.24 0.19–2.29 0.00–2.56 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.14 0.96–5.32 0.40–5.88 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.10 0.66–3.54 0.28–3.92 | 4.20 2.65–5.76 2.22–6.18 | 6.30 3.31–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 14% 74% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.