UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.192.55safe0.40–2.330.33–2.040.73–4.37safer0.15–2.580.10–2.270.25–4.85
Shots on target
52%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.888.38safe2.64–6.372.14–5.624.78–11.99safer2.15–6.851.67–6.093.82–12.94
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4611.2723.73safe8.53–16.387.71–14.8416.24–31.22safer7.44–17.476.75–15.8014.19–33.27
Shots in box
45%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction6.976.9213.89safe4.03–9.914.24–9.608.26–19.51safer3.20–10.743.50–10.336.70–21.08
Blocked shots
35%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.256.08safe0.95–4.721.59–4.902.55–9.62safer0.41–5.261.10–5.391.51–10.65
Corners
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.509.36safe2.64–7.072.50–6.505.14–13.57safer2.07–7.641.97–7.034.04–14.68
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.3652.60safe39.57–53.1545.82–59.39safer37.90–54.8244.15–61.06
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction397466862safe330–464399–532729–996safer312–482382–550693–1032
Pass accuracy %
26%
69%
homeawayprediction73.1477.55safe69.11–77.1773.22–81.87safer67.82–78.4671.91–83.18
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3514.0826.43safe9.51–15.1911.13–17.0220.64–32.21safer8.76–15.9410.38–17.7719.14–33.71
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.553.46safe0.75–3.070.46–2.641.20–5.71safer0.45–3.370.17–2.930.61–6.30
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.163.93safe0.72–2.821.03–3.291.75–6.11safer0.46–3.090.74–3.581.20–6.67
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.633.125.75safe1.19–4.061.56–4.682.75–8.74safer0.80–4.451.14–5.101.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.15–2.58 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 41% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.37 2.15–6.85 | 3.88 2.14–5.62 1.67–6.09 | 8.38 4.78–11.99 3.82–12.94 | 52% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.46 8.53–16.38 7.44–17.47 | 11.27 7.71–14.84 6.75–15.80 | 23.73 16.24–31.22 14.19–33.27 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 6.97 4.03–9.91 3.20–10.74 | 6.92 4.24–9.60 3.50–10.33 | 13.89 8.26–19.51 6.70–21.08 | 45% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 2.84 0.95–4.72 0.41–5.26 | 3.25 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 6.08 2.55–9.62 1.51–10.65 | 35% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.64–7.07 2.07–7.64 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.97–7.03 | 9.36 5.14–13.57 4.04–14.68 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Possession % | 46.36 39.57–53.15 37.90–54.82 | 52.60 45.82–59.39 44.15–61.06 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 312–482 | 466 399–532 382–550 | 862 729–996 693–1032 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.14 69.11–77.17 67.82–78.46 | 77.55 73.22–81.87 71.91–83.18 | — | 26% 69% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.51–15.19 8.76–15.94 | 14.08 11.13–17.02 10.38–17.77 | 26.43 20.64–32.21 19.14–33.71 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.37 | 1.55 0.46–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 3.46 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.93 1.75–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.12 1.56–4.68 1.14–5.10 | 5.75 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.