Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.092.41safe0.35–2.290.24–1.940.58–4.23safer0.10–2.540.01–2.170.10–4.71
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.788.16safe2.52–6.242.04–5.534.56–11.77safer2.03–6.731.57–5.993.60–12.73
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4610.9824.44safe9.54–17.397.41–14.5416.95–31.93safer8.45–18.486.45–15.5014.90–33.98
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.187.2415.42safe5.24–11.124.56–9.929.80–21.05safer4.41–11.953.82–10.668.23–22.61
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.023.377.38safe2.13–5.901.72–5.023.85–10.92safer1.59–6.441.22–5.512.81–11.95
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.323.829.14safe3.11–7.541.82–5.824.92–13.35safer2.53–8.111.28–6.353.82–14.46
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3442.13safe50.55–64.1335.35–48.92safer48.88–65.8033.68–50.59
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction588410998safe521–655344–477865–1132safer503–673326–494829–1168
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction72.2669.06safe68.23–76.2964.73–73.38safer66.94–77.5863.42–74.69
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9312.1523.08safe8.09–13.779.20–15.0917.29–28.86safer7.34–14.528.45–15.8415.79–30.36
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.392.91safe0.36–2.680.30–2.490.66–5.17safer0.06–2.980.01–2.780.07–5.76
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.033.94safe0.85–2.950.90–3.161.76–6.11safer0.59–3.220.61–3.451.20–6.67
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.095.55safe1.02–3.901.53–4.642.56–8.54safer0.64–4.281.11–5.071.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.09 0.24–1.94 0.01–2.17 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.71 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 3.78 2.04–5.53 1.57–5.99 | 8.16 4.56–11.77 3.60–12.73 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.46 9.54–17.39 8.45–18.48 | 10.98 7.41–14.54 6.45–15.50 | 24.44 16.95–31.93 14.90–33.98 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.18 5.24–11.12 4.41–11.95 | 7.24 4.56–9.92 3.82–10.66 | 15.42 9.80–21.05 8.23–22.61 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.13–5.90 1.59–6.44 | 3.37 1.72–5.02 1.22–5.51 | 7.38 3.85–10.92 2.81–11.95 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.54 2.53–8.11 | 3.82 1.82–5.82 1.28–6.35 | 9.14 4.92–13.35 3.82–14.46 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 57.34 50.55–64.13 48.88–65.80 | 42.13 35.35–48.92 33.68–50.59 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 588 521–655 503–673 | 410 344–477 326–494 | 998 865–1132 829–1168 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.26 68.23–76.29 66.94–77.58 | 69.06 64.73–73.38 63.42–74.69 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.09–13.77 7.34–14.52 | 12.15 9.20–15.09 8.45–15.84 | 23.08 17.29–28.86 15.79–30.36 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 1.39 0.30–2.49 0.01–2.78 | 2.91 0.66–5.17 0.07–5.76 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.94 1.76–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.02–3.90 0.64–4.28 | 3.09 1.53–4.64 1.11–5.07 | 5.55 2.56–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.