Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.472.68safe0.24–2.170.62–2.330.85–4.50safer0.00–2.420.39–2.560.37–4.98
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.438.52safe2.22–5.952.69–6.184.91–12.12safer1.73–6.442.22–6.643.96–13.08
Total shots
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0211.6023.62safe8.09–15.948.04–15.1616.13–31.10safer7.00–17.037.08–16.1214.08–33.16
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.008.3415.35safe4.06–9.955.66–11.039.73–20.97safer3.23–10.784.93–11.768.16–22.54
Blocked shots
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.182.655.83safe1.30–5.071.00–4.302.30–9.37safer0.76–5.610.50–4.791.26–10.40
Corners
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.474.468.93safe2.25–6.682.46–6.464.72–13.15safer1.68–7.251.93–7.003.61–14.25
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.6354.40safe38.84–52.4247.62–61.19safer37.17–54.0945.95–62.86
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction406508914safe339–474442–575781–1048safer321–492424–592745–1084
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction75.2377.65safe71.20–79.2673.33–81.98safer69.91–80.5572.02–83.29
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1212.1324.25safe9.29–14.969.19–15.0818.47–30.04safer8.53–15.728.44–15.8216.97–31.54
Offsides
28%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.293.92safe0.47–2.801.19–3.381.67–6.17safer0.17–3.100.90–3.671.08–6.76
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.113.97safe0.81–2.910.98–3.241.79–6.15safer0.55–3.180.69–3.531.24–6.71
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.635.52safe1.46–4.331.07–4.182.53–8.51safer1.07–4.720.65–4.611.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.22–5.95 1.73–6.44 | 4.43 2.69–6.18 2.22–6.64 | 8.52 4.91–12.12 3.96–13.08 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.02 8.09–15.94 7.00–17.03 | 11.60 8.04–15.16 7.08–16.12 | 23.62 16.13–31.10 14.08–33.16 | 49% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.00 4.06–9.95 3.23–10.78 | 8.34 5.66–11.03 4.93–11.76 | 15.35 9.73–20.97 8.16–22.54 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.30–5.07 0.76–5.61 | 2.65 1.00–4.30 0.50–4.79 | 5.83 2.30–9.37 1.26–10.40 | 50% 17% 33% |
| Corners | 4.47 2.25–6.68 1.68–7.25 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 8.93 4.72–13.15 3.61–14.25 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Possession % | 45.63 38.84–52.42 37.17–54.09 | 54.40 47.62–61.19 45.95–62.86 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 406 339–474 321–492 | 508 442–575 424–592 | 914 781–1048 745–1084 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.23 71.20–79.26 69.91–80.55 | 77.65 73.33–81.98 72.02–83.29 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.29–14.96 8.53–15.72 | 12.13 9.19–15.08 8.44–15.82 | 24.25 18.47–30.04 16.97–31.54 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.47–2.80 0.17–3.10 | 2.29 1.19–3.38 0.90–3.67 | 3.92 1.67–6.17 1.08–6.76 | 28% 20% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.55–3.18 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.46–4.33 1.07–4.72 | 2.63 1.07–4.18 0.65–4.61 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.33 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.