UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.252.68safe0.47–2.400.39–2.100.86–4.51safer0.22–2.650.17–2.330.38–4.99
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.309.14safe2.98–6.702.55–6.045.53–12.74safer2.49–7.192.09–6.514.57–13.70
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8811.4525.34safe9.96–17.817.89–15.0117.85–32.82safer8.87–18.906.93–15.9715.80–34.87
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.678.4717.14safe5.73–11.625.79–11.1511.52–22.76safer4.90–12.445.05–11.899.95–24.33
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.467.09safe1.75–5.511.81–5.113.56–10.63safer1.21–6.061.31–5.602.52–11.66
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.589.87safe3.08–7.502.58–6.585.66–14.09safer2.50–8.082.05–7.124.55–15.19
Possession %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction56.8144.03safe50.02–63.6037.24–50.81safer48.35–65.2735.57–52.48
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction513395908safe445–580329–462774–1042safer427–598311–479739–1077
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction75.6470.88safe71.61–79.6766.56–75.21safer70.32–80.9665.25–76.52
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0610.5620.63safe7.22–12.907.62–13.5114.84–26.41safer6.47–13.656.87–14.2613.34–27.91
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.231.814.04safe1.07–3.390.72–2.911.79–6.30safer0.77–3.690.43–3.191.20–6.88
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.003.79safe0.74–2.830.87–3.131.61–5.96safer0.47–3.100.58–3.421.05–6.52
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.225.96safe1.30–4.171.67–4.782.96–8.95safer0.91–4.561.24–5.202.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.40 0.22–2.65 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.17–2.33 | 2.68 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.70 2.49–7.19 | 4.30 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 9.14 5.53–12.74 4.57–13.70 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.88 9.96–17.81 8.87–18.90 | 11.45 7.89–15.01 6.93–15.97 | 25.34 17.85–32.82 15.80–34.87 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 5.73–11.62 4.90–12.44 | 8.47 5.79–11.15 5.05–11.89 | 17.14 11.52–22.76 9.95–24.33 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.21–6.06 | 3.46 1.81–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.66 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.50 2.50–8.08 | 4.58 2.58–6.58 2.05–7.12 | 9.87 5.66–14.09 4.55–15.19 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 56.81 50.02–63.60 48.35–65.27 | 44.03 37.24–50.81 35.57–52.48 | — | 76% 21% |
| Passes | 513 445–580 427–598 | 395 329–462 311–479 | 908 774–1042 739–1077 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.64 71.61–79.67 70.32–80.96 | 70.88 66.56–75.21 65.25–76.52 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 10.06 7.22–12.90 6.47–13.65 | 10.56 7.62–13.51 6.87–14.26 | 20.63 14.84–26.41 13.34–27.91 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.23 1.07–3.39 0.77–3.69 | 1.81 0.72–2.91 0.43–3.19 | 4.04 1.79–6.30 1.20–6.88 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.79 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.30–4.17 0.91–4.56 | 3.22 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.20 | 5.96 2.96–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+