UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.793.31safe0.55–2.490.94–2.651.49–5.14safer0.30–2.740.71–2.881.01–5.62
Shots on target
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.715.5010.21safe2.85–6.573.76–7.246.61–13.82safer2.36–7.063.29–7.715.65–14.77
Total shots
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0613.8026.86safe9.14–16.9910.23–17.3619.37–34.35safer8.05–18.089.28–18.3217.32–36.40
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.199.0117.20safe5.25–11.136.33–11.6911.57–22.82safer4.42–11.965.59–12.4310.01–24.39
Blocked shots
33%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.576.53safe1.08–4.841.92–5.233.00–10.07safer0.53–5.391.43–5.721.96–11.10
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.909.31safe2.20–6.632.90–6.905.10–13.53safer1.63–7.202.36–7.433.99–14.63
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction43.8755.31safe37.08–50.6648.53–62.10safer35.41–52.3346.86–63.77
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction376489865safe309–444422–555732–999safer291–462405–573696–1035
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction77.2581.74safe73.22–81.2877.42–86.07safer71.93–82.5776.11–87.38
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4912.3624.85safe9.65–15.339.41–15.3019.07–30.63safer8.90–16.098.66–16.0517.56–32.14
Offsides
49%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.553.60safe0.89–3.210.46–2.641.34–5.85safer0.59–3.510.17–2.930.76–6.44
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.254.25safe0.95–3.051.12–3.382.07–6.43safer0.69–3.320.83–3.671.51–6.98
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.733.136.85safe2.29–5.161.57–4.683.86–9.85safer1.90–5.551.15–5.113.05–10.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.79 0.94–2.65 0.71–2.88 | 3.31 1.49–5.14 1.01–5.62 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.85–6.57 2.36–7.06 | 5.50 3.76–7.24 3.29–7.71 | 10.21 6.61–13.82 5.65–14.77 | 34% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.06 9.14–16.99 8.05–18.08 | 13.80 10.23–17.36 9.28–18.32 | 26.86 19.37–34.35 17.32–36.40 | 41% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.19 5.25–11.13 4.42–11.96 | 9.01 6.33–11.69 5.59–12.43 | 17.20 11.57–22.82 10.01–24.39 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.08–4.84 0.53–5.39 | 3.57 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 6.53 3.00–10.07 1.96–11.10 | 33% 16% 52% |
| Corners | 4.42 2.20–6.63 1.63–7.20 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.36–7.43 | 9.31 5.10–13.53 3.99–14.63 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 43.87 37.08–50.66 35.41–52.33 | 55.31 48.53–62.10 46.86–63.77 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 376 309–444 291–462 | 489 422–555 405–573 | 865 732–999 696–1035 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.25 73.22–81.28 71.93–82.57 | 81.74 77.42–86.07 76.11–87.38 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 12.49 9.65–15.33 8.90–16.09 | 12.36 9.41–15.30 8.66–16.05 | 24.85 19.07–30.63 17.56–32.14 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 1.55 0.46–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 3.60 1.34–5.85 0.76–6.44 | 49% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.69–3.32 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.51–6.98 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.73 2.29–5.16 1.90–5.55 | 3.13 1.57–4.68 1.15–5.11 | 6.85 3.86–9.85 3.05–10.66 | 51% 15% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+