UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
22%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.153.14safe1.02–2.960.29–2.001.31–4.96safer0.77–3.210.06–2.230.83–5.44
Shots on target
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.783.789.56safe3.92–7.642.03–5.525.95–13.16safer3.43–8.131.57–5.985.00–14.12
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6410.2324.87safe10.71–18.566.67–13.7917.38–32.35safer9.62–19.655.71–14.7515.33–34.40
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.436.0315.46safe6.49–12.373.35–8.719.84–21.08safer5.66–13.202.61–9.458.27–22.65
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.746.32safe1.69–5.461.09–4.402.78–9.85safer1.15–6.000.60–4.891.75–10.89
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.563.549.10safe3.34–7.771.54–5.544.89–13.31safer2.77–8.351.01–6.083.78–14.42
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.6744.26safe49.88–63.4637.48–51.04safer48.21–65.1335.80–52.72
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction482382864safe414–549315–448730–997safer396–567298–466694–1033
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction78.5273.54safe74.49–82.5569.21–77.86safer73.20–83.8467.90–79.17
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9613.7324.69safe8.12–13.7910.79–16.6818.91–30.47safer7.36–14.5510.04–17.4317.40–31.98
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.653.60safe0.80–3.120.55–2.741.35–5.86safer0.49–3.420.27–3.030.76–6.45
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.243.92safe0.63–2.731.11–3.371.74–6.09safer0.36–2.990.82–3.661.18–6.65
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.676.36safe1.25–4.122.12–5.233.37–9.35safer0.86–4.511.69–5.662.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 1.02–2.96 0.77–3.21 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 3.14 1.31–4.96 0.83–5.44 | 57% 22% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.78 3.92–7.64 3.43–8.13 | 3.78 2.03–5.52 1.57–5.98 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 69% 21% |
| Total shots | 14.64 10.71–18.56 9.62–19.65 | 10.23 6.67–13.79 5.71–14.75 | 24.87 17.38–32.35 15.33–34.40 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.49–12.37 5.66–13.20 | 6.03 3.35–8.71 2.61–9.45 | 15.46 9.84–21.08 8.27–22.65 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.69–5.46 1.15–6.00 | 2.74 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 6.32 2.78–9.85 1.75–10.89 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.34–7.77 2.77–8.35 | 3.54 1.54–5.54 1.01–6.08 | 9.10 4.89–13.31 3.78–14.42 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 56.67 49.88–63.46 48.21–65.13 | 44.26 37.48–51.04 35.80–52.72 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 482 414–549 396–567 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 864 730–997 694–1033 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.52 74.49–82.55 73.20–83.84 | 73.54 69.21–77.86 67.90–79.17 | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.12–13.79 7.36–14.55 | 13.73 10.79–16.68 10.04–17.43 | 24.69 18.91–30.47 17.40–31.98 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.49–3.42 | 1.65 0.55–2.74 0.27–3.03 | 3.60 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.36–2.99 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.92 1.74–6.09 1.18–6.65 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.67 2.12–5.23 1.69–5.66 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 27% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.