UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.122.69safe0.60–2.530.27–1.980.87–4.51safer0.35–2.790.04–2.210.39–4.99
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.458.17safe2.86–6.581.71–5.194.56–11.77safer2.37–7.071.24–5.663.61–12.73
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4211.0524.47safe9.49–17.347.49–14.6116.98–31.96safer8.40–18.436.53–15.5714.93–34.01
Shots in box
66%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction8.316.1914.50safe5.37–11.253.51–8.878.88–20.13safer4.54–12.082.77–9.617.31–21.69
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.425.65safe1.35–5.110.77–4.082.12–9.19safer0.80–5.660.28–4.571.08–10.23
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.858.83safe2.77–7.201.85–5.854.62–13.05safer2.20–7.781.31–6.383.51–14.15
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.4944.40safe48.70–62.2837.61–51.18safer47.03–63.9535.94–52.85
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction440373813safe373–507307–439679–947safer354–525289–457644–982
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction78.7374.09safe74.70–82.7669.76–78.41safer73.40–84.0568.45–79.72
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4213.5826.00safe9.58–15.2610.64–16.5220.22–31.78safer8.83–16.019.89–17.2718.71–33.29
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.863.50safe0.49–2.810.77–2.951.25–5.76safer0.18–3.110.48–3.240.66–6.35
Yellow cards
39%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.023.99safe0.92–3.020.89–3.151.81–6.17safer0.66–3.290.60–3.441.25–6.73
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.945.49safe1.11–3.981.39–4.502.50–8.48safer0.72–4.370.96–4.931.69–9.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.53 0.35–2.79 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 3.45 1.71–5.19 1.24–5.66 | 8.17 4.56–11.77 3.61–12.73 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.42 9.49–17.34 8.40–18.43 | 11.05 7.49–14.61 6.53–15.57 | 24.47 16.98–31.96 14.93–34.01 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.31 5.37–11.25 4.54–12.08 | 6.19 3.51–8.87 2.77–9.61 | 14.50 8.88–20.13 7.31–21.69 | 66% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.11 0.80–5.66 | 2.42 0.77–4.08 0.28–4.57 | 5.65 2.12–9.19 1.08–10.23 | 55% 16% 29% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.78 | 3.85 1.85–5.85 1.31–6.38 | 8.83 4.62–13.05 3.51–14.15 | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 55.49 48.70–62.28 47.03–63.95 | 44.40 37.61–51.18 35.94–52.85 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 440 373–507 354–525 | 373 307–439 289–457 | 813 679–947 644–982 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.73 74.70–82.76 73.40–84.05 | 74.09 69.76–78.41 68.45–79.72 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.58–15.26 8.83–16.01 | 13.58 10.64–16.52 9.89–17.27 | 26.00 20.22–31.78 18.71–33.29 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.18–3.11 | 1.86 0.77–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 3.50 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.25–6.73 | 39% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | 5.49 2.50–8.48 1.69–9.29 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.