UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.951.682.64safe0.00–1.920.83–2.540.81–4.46safer0.00–2.170.60–2.770.33–4.94
Shots on target
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.825.008.82safe1.96–5.683.26–6.755.22–12.43safer1.47–6.172.80–7.214.26–13.38
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1113.9325.04safe7.19–15.0410.37–17.4917.55–32.53safer6.10–16.139.41–18.4515.50–34.58
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction6.829.0015.82safe3.88–9.776.32–11.6810.20–21.44safer3.05–10.595.58–12.418.63–23.01
Blocked shots
40%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.166.21safe1.17–4.941.51–4.812.68–9.75safer0.63–5.481.01–5.301.64–10.78
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.419.60safe1.97–6.403.41–7.415.39–13.81safer1.40–6.972.88–7.954.28–14.92
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.0459.57safe32.24–45.8352.78–66.35safer30.58–47.5051.11–68.03
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction386560947safe319–454494–627813–1080safer301–472476–644777–1116
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction74.3780.08safe70.34–78.4075.76–84.41safer69.05–79.6974.45–85.72
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.6124.36safe8.90–14.589.67–15.5618.57–30.14safer8.15–15.348.92–16.3117.07–31.64
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.063.69safe0.48–2.800.96–3.151.44–5.95safer0.18–3.100.68–3.440.85–6.54
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.883.87safe0.94–3.040.75–3.011.69–6.05safer0.67–3.300.46–3.301.13–6.60
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.432.816.24safe1.99–4.871.26–4.373.25–9.24safer1.61–5.250.83–4.802.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.95 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 1.68 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 2.64 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 21% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.82 1.96–5.68 1.47–6.17 | 5.00 3.26–6.75 2.80–7.21 | 8.82 5.22–12.43 4.26–13.38 | 28% 59% |
| Total shots | 11.11 7.19–15.04 6.10–16.13 | 13.93 10.37–17.49 9.41–18.45 | 25.04 17.55–32.53 15.50–34.58 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.82 3.88–9.77 3.05–10.59 | 9.00 6.32–11.68 5.58–12.41 | 15.82 10.20–21.44 8.63–23.01 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.94 0.63–5.48 | 3.16 1.51–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.21 2.68–9.75 1.64–10.78 | 40% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 4.19 1.97–6.40 1.40–6.97 | 5.41 3.41–7.41 2.88–7.95 | 9.60 5.39–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 39.04 32.24–45.83 30.58–47.50 | 59.57 52.78–66.35 51.11–68.03 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 386 319–454 301–472 | 560 494–627 476–644 | 947 813–1080 777–1116 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.37 70.34–78.40 69.05–79.69 | 80.08 75.76–84.41 74.45–85.72 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.58 8.15–15.34 | 12.61 9.67–15.56 8.92–16.31 | 24.36 18.57–30.14 17.07–31.64 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 2.06 0.96–3.15 0.68–3.44 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.67–3.30 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.13–6.60 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.43 1.99–4.87 1.61–5.25 | 2.81 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | 6.24 3.25–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 52% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.