UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
23%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction0.931.752.68safe0.00–1.900.90–2.610.86–4.50safer0.00–2.150.67–2.830.38–4.98
Shots on target
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.475.539.00safe1.61–5.333.79–7.275.40–12.61safer1.12–5.823.32–7.744.44–13.56
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7714.6325.40safe6.85–14.7011.06–18.1917.91–32.89safer5.76–15.7910.11–19.1515.86–34.94
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction6.409.6616.06safe3.46–9.346.98–12.3510.44–21.69safer2.63–10.176.25–13.088.87–23.25
Blocked shots
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.536.05safe0.64–4.401.87–5.182.51–9.58safer0.10–4.951.38–5.671.48–10.62
Corners
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.555.469.01safe1.33–5.763.46–7.464.80–13.22safer0.76–6.332.93–8.003.69–14.33
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction37.7661.46safe30.97–44.5554.67–68.24safer29.30–46.2253.00–69.91
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction317525842safe250–385458–591709–976safer232–403441–609673–1012
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction75.1982.74safe71.16–79.2278.42–87.06safer69.87–80.5177.11–88.37
Fouls
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2511.2325.49safe11.42–17.098.29–14.1819.70–31.27safer10.66–17.857.54–14.9318.20–32.77
Offsides
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.044.25safe1.04–3.360.95–3.141.99–6.50safer0.74–3.660.66–3.431.41–7.09
Yellow cards
48%
19%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.034.47safe1.39–3.490.90–3.162.29–6.64safer1.12–3.750.61–3.451.73–7.20
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.26safe0.00–0.310.00–0.300.00–0.61safer0.00–0.460.00–0.430.00–0.89
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.486.42safe2.51–5.380.92–4.033.43–9.42safer2.12–5.770.50–4.462.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.93 0.00–1.90 0.00–2.15 | 1.75 0.90–2.61 0.67–2.83 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 20% 23% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.61–5.33 1.12–5.82 | 5.53 3.79–7.27 3.32–7.74 | 9.00 5.40–12.61 4.44–13.56 | 19% 70% |
| Total shots | 10.77 6.85–14.70 5.76–15.79 | 14.63 11.06–18.19 10.11–19.15 | 25.40 17.91–32.89 15.86–34.94 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 6.40 3.46–9.34 2.63–10.17 | 9.66 6.98–12.35 6.25–13.08 | 16.06 10.44–21.69 8.87–23.25 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 2.52 0.64–4.40 0.10–4.95 | 3.53 1.87–5.18 1.38–5.67 | 6.05 2.51–9.58 1.48–10.62 | 27% 15% 58% |
| Corners | 3.55 1.33–5.76 0.76–6.33 | 5.46 3.46–7.46 2.93–8.00 | 9.01 4.80–13.22 3.69–14.33 | 21% 68% |
| Possession % | 37.76 30.97–44.55 29.30–46.22 | 61.46 54.67–68.24 53.00–69.91 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 317 250–385 232–403 | 525 458–591 441–609 | 842 709–976 673–1012 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.19 71.16–79.22 69.87–80.51 | 82.74 78.42–87.06 77.11–88.37 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 14.25 11.42–17.09 10.66–17.85 | 11.23 8.29–14.18 7.54–14.93 | 25.49 19.70–31.27 18.20–32.77 | 69% 24% |
| Offsides | 2.20 1.04–3.36 0.74–3.66 | 2.04 0.95–3.14 0.66–3.43 | 4.25 1.99–6.50 1.41–7.09 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.39–3.49 1.12–3.75 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 4.47 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.20 | 48% 19% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.95 2.51–5.38 2.12–5.77 | 2.48 0.92–4.03 0.50–4.46 | 6.42 3.43–9.42 2.62–10.23 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.