UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.062.59safe0.56–2.500.21–1.920.77–4.41safer0.31–2.750.00–2.150.29–4.89
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.378.16safe2.93–6.661.63–5.114.56–11.77safer2.44–7.151.16–5.583.60–12.73
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8811.3924.27safe8.96–16.817.83–14.9516.78–31.76safer7.86–17.906.87–15.9114.73–33.81
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.187.0415.22safe5.24–11.124.36–9.729.60–20.84safer4.41–11.953.62–10.468.03–22.41
Blocked shots
54%
17%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.245.19safe1.07–4.840.58–3.891.66–8.73safer0.53–5.380.09–4.380.62–9.76
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.683.799.47safe3.47–7.901.79–5.795.26–13.69safer2.89–8.471.26–6.334.15–14.80
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.7545.09safe47.96–61.5438.31–51.88safer46.29–63.2136.64–53.55
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction440343784safe373–508277–410650–917safer355–526259–427614–953
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction75.4271.53safe71.39–79.4467.20–75.85safer70.09–80.7465.89–77.16
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3512.2223.57safe8.51–14.199.27–15.1617.79–29.35safer7.76–14.948.52–15.9116.28–30.85
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.753.61safe0.70–3.020.66–2.841.35–5.86safer0.40–3.320.37–3.130.76–6.45
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.853.35safe0.45–2.550.72–2.981.17–5.53safer0.19–2.820.43–3.270.61–6.09
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.245.90safe1.22–4.091.68–4.802.91–8.89safer0.83–4.481.26–5.222.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 48% 26% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.93–6.66 2.44–7.15 | 3.37 1.63–5.11 1.16–5.58 | 8.16 4.56–11.77 3.60–12.73 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 12.88 8.96–16.81 7.86–17.90 | 11.39 7.83–14.95 6.87–15.91 | 24.27 16.78–31.76 14.73–33.81 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.18 5.24–11.12 4.41–11.95 | 7.04 4.36–9.72 3.62–10.46 | 15.22 9.60–20.84 8.03–22.41 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.07–4.84 0.53–5.38 | 2.24 0.58–3.89 0.09–4.38 | 5.19 1.66–8.73 0.62–9.76 | 54% 17% 29% |
| Corners | 5.68 3.47–7.90 2.89–8.47 | 3.79 1.79–5.79 1.26–6.33 | 9.47 5.26–13.69 4.15–14.80 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 54.75 47.96–61.54 46.29–63.21 | 45.09 38.31–51.88 36.64–53.55 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 440 373–508 355–526 | 343 277–410 259–427 | 784 650–917 614–953 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.42 71.39–79.44 70.09–80.74 | 71.53 67.20–75.85 65.89–77.16 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 11.35 8.51–14.19 7.76–14.94 | 12.22 9.27–15.16 8.52–15.91 | 23.57 17.79–29.35 16.28–30.85 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.75 0.66–2.84 0.37–3.13 | 3.61 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.35 1.17–5.53 0.61–6.09 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.24 1.68–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.