UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.732.74safe0.05–1.980.88–2.580.92–4.57safer0.00–2.230.65–2.810.44–5.05
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.665.429.08safe1.80–5.523.68–7.165.47–12.68safer1.31–6.013.21–7.634.52–13.64
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1515.6825.82safe6.22–14.0712.11–19.2418.34–33.31safer5.13–15.1611.15–20.2016.29–35.36
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction5.8410.9816.82safe2.90–8.788.30–13.6611.20–22.44safer2.07–9.617.56–14.399.63–24.01
Blocked shots
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.456.02safe0.69–4.451.79–5.102.48–9.55safer0.14–5.001.30–5.591.45–10.59
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.495.7010.20safe2.28–6.713.70–7.705.98–14.41safer1.71–7.283.17–8.244.88–15.52
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction44.7554.79safe37.95–51.5448.01–61.58safer36.29–53.2146.34–63.25
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction391446838safe324–459380–513704–971safer306–477362–530668–1007
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction71.1775.19safe67.14–75.2070.86–79.51safer65.85–76.4969.55–80.82
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3013.8126.12safe9.46–15.1410.87–16.7620.33–31.90safer8.71–15.9010.12–17.5118.83–33.40
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.983.95safe0.81–3.130.89–3.081.70–6.21safer0.51–3.430.60–3.371.11–6.80
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.843.67safe0.78–2.880.71–2.971.49–5.85safer0.52–3.150.42–3.260.93–6.40
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.736.42safe2.25–5.121.18–4.293.43–9.41safer1.86–5.510.75–4.712.61–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.05–1.98 0.00–2.23 | 1.73 0.88–2.58 0.65–2.81 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 22% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.52 1.31–6.01 | 5.42 3.68–7.16 3.21–7.63 | 9.08 5.47–12.68 4.52–13.64 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 10.15 6.22–14.07 5.13–15.16 | 15.68 12.11–19.24 11.15–20.20 | 25.82 18.34–33.31 16.29–35.36 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 5.84 2.90–8.78 2.07–9.61 | 10.98 8.30–13.66 7.56–14.39 | 16.82 11.20–22.44 9.63–24.01 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 2.57 0.69–4.45 0.14–5.00 | 3.45 1.79–5.10 1.30–5.59 | 6.02 2.48–9.55 1.45–10.59 | 28% 16% 56% |
| Corners | 4.49 2.28–6.71 1.71–7.28 | 5.70 3.70–7.70 3.17–8.24 | 10.20 5.98–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 44.75 37.95–51.54 36.29–53.21 | 54.79 48.01–61.58 46.34–63.25 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 391 324–459 306–477 | 446 380–513 362–530 | 838 704–971 668–1007 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.17 67.14–75.20 65.85–76.49 | 75.19 70.86–79.51 69.55–80.82 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.30 9.46–15.14 8.71–15.90 | 13.81 10.87–16.76 10.12–17.51 | 26.12 20.33–31.90 18.83–33.40 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.98 0.89–3.08 0.60–3.37 | 3.95 1.70–6.21 1.11–6.80 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.52–3.15 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.93–6.40 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.69 2.25–5.12 1.86–5.51 | 2.73 1.18–4.29 0.75–4.71 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.61–10.22 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+