UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.222.55safe0.36–2.300.36–2.070.72–4.37safer0.11–2.550.14–2.300.24–4.85
Shots on target
58%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.447.98safe2.68–6.401.70–5.184.37–11.58safer2.19–6.891.23–5.653.42–12.54
Total shots
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction11.939.7321.66safe8.01–15.856.16–13.2914.17–29.14safer6.91–16.955.20–14.2512.12–31.19
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.577.0614.63safe4.62–10.514.38–9.749.01–20.25safer3.79–11.343.65–10.487.44–21.82
Blocked shots
52%
18%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.822.175.00safe0.94–4.710.52–3.831.46–8.53safer0.40–5.250.03–4.320.43–9.57
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.349.49safe2.94–7.372.34–6.345.28–13.71safer2.36–7.941.81–6.884.17–14.82
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.8649.66safe43.07–56.6542.88–56.45safer41.40–58.3241.21–58.12
Passes
55%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction404387791safe337–471321–454658–925safer319–489303–471622–961
Pass accuracy %
52%
42%
homeawayprediction75.3674.40safe71.33–79.3970.07–78.72safer70.04–80.6868.76–80.03
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4912.7026.19safe10.65–16.339.75–15.6420.40–31.97safer9.90–17.089.00–16.3918.90–33.47
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.743.85safe0.95–3.270.64–2.831.59–6.10safer0.65–3.570.35–3.121.00–6.69
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.883.84safe0.91–3.000.75–3.011.66–6.01safer0.64–3.270.46–3.301.10–6.57
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.935.73safe1.36–4.231.38–4.492.73–8.72safer0.97–4.620.95–4.911.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.55 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.40 2.19–6.89 | 3.44 1.70–5.18 1.23–5.65 | 7.98 4.37–11.58 3.42–12.54 | 58% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 11.93 8.01–15.85 6.91–16.95 | 9.73 6.16–13.29 5.20–14.25 | 21.66 14.17–29.14 12.12–31.19 | 64% 28% |
| Shots in box | 7.57 4.62–10.51 3.79–11.34 | 7.06 4.38–9.74 3.65–10.48 | 14.63 9.01–20.25 7.44–21.82 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 2.82 0.94–4.71 0.40–5.25 | 2.17 0.52–3.83 0.03–4.32 | 5.00 1.46–8.53 0.43–9.57 | 52% 18% 30% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.37 2.36–7.94 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.81–6.88 | 9.49 5.28–13.71 4.17–14.82 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.86 43.07–56.65 41.40–58.32 | 49.66 42.88–56.45 41.21–58.12 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 404 337–471 319–489 | 387 321–454 303–471 | 791 658–925 622–961 | 55% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.36 71.33–79.39 70.04–80.68 | 74.40 70.07–78.72 68.76–80.03 | — | 52% 42% |
| Fouls | 13.49 10.65–16.33 9.90–17.08 | 12.70 9.75–15.64 9.00–16.39 | 26.19 20.40–31.97 18.90–33.47 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.35–3.12 | 3.85 1.59–6.10 1.00–6.69 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.84 1.66–6.01 1.10–6.57 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.91 | 5.73 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.