UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.042.40safe0.39–2.330.19–1.890.57–4.22safer0.14–2.580.00–2.120.10–4.70
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.093.568.65safe3.23–6.951.81–5.305.04–12.25safer2.74–7.441.35–5.764.09–13.21
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction14.789.4824.26safe10.86–18.715.91–13.0416.77–31.75safer9.77–19.804.95–14.0014.72–33.80
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.196.1615.34safe6.24–12.133.48–8.849.72–20.97safer5.42–12.962.74–9.578.15–22.53
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.396.69safe2.43–6.190.73–4.043.16–10.23safer1.88–6.730.24–4.532.12–11.26
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.283.618.88safe3.06–7.491.61–5.614.67–13.10safer2.49–8.061.08–6.143.56–14.21
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.8150.17safe44.02–57.6043.38–56.95safer42.35–59.2741.71–58.62
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction485493979safe418–553427–560845–1113safer400–571409–577809–1148
Pass accuracy %
24%
71%
homeawayprediction69.2974.16safe65.26–73.3269.83–78.48safer63.97–74.6168.52–79.79
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0111.8923.91safe9.18–14.858.95–14.8418.13–29.69safer8.42–15.618.20–15.5916.62–31.19
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.743.52safe0.62–2.940.64–2.831.26–5.77safer0.32–3.240.36–3.120.67–6.36
Yellow cards
24%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.434.00safe0.52–2.621.30–3.561.82–6.18safer0.26–2.891.01–3.851.27–6.74
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.425.87safe1.01–3.891.87–4.982.88–8.86safer0.63–4.271.44–5.402.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.04 0.19–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.23–6.95 2.74–7.44 | 3.56 1.81–5.30 1.35–5.76 | 8.65 5.04–12.25 4.09–13.21 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.78 10.86–18.71 9.77–19.80 | 9.48 5.91–13.04 4.95–14.00 | 24.26 16.77–31.75 14.72–33.80 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 9.19 6.24–12.13 5.42–12.96 | 6.16 3.48–8.84 2.74–9.57 | 15.34 9.72–20.97 8.15–22.53 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.19 1.88–6.73 | 2.39 0.73–4.04 0.24–4.53 | 6.69 3.16–10.23 2.12–11.26 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.06–7.49 2.49–8.06 | 3.61 1.61–5.61 1.08–6.14 | 8.88 4.67–13.10 3.56–14.21 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 50.81 44.02–57.60 42.35–59.27 | 50.17 43.38–56.95 41.71–58.62 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 485 418–553 400–571 | 493 427–560 409–577 | 979 845–1113 809–1148 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.29 65.26–73.32 63.97–74.61 | 74.16 69.83–78.48 68.52–79.79 | — | 24% 71% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.18–14.85 8.42–15.61 | 11.89 8.95–14.84 8.20–15.59 | 23.91 18.13–29.69 16.62–31.19 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.36–3.12 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.26–2.89 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 4.00 1.82–6.18 1.27–6.74 | 24% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.89 0.63–4.27 | 3.42 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.40 | 5.87 2.88–8.86 2.07–9.68 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.