UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.162.98safe0.85–2.790.30–2.011.15–4.80safer0.60–3.040.07–2.240.67–5.28
Shots on target
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.273.8410.11safe4.41–8.132.09–5.586.50–13.71safer3.92–8.621.63–6.045.55–14.67
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9110.3027.21safe12.99–20.846.73–13.8619.72–34.70safer11.89–21.935.78–14.8217.67–36.75
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.736.1516.87safe7.79–13.673.46–8.8311.25–22.50safer6.96–14.502.73–9.569.68–24.06
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.662.827.47safe2.77–6.541.16–4.473.94–11.01safer2.23–7.080.67–4.962.90–12.04
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.943.809.74safe3.73–8.151.80–5.805.53–13.96safer3.15–8.731.27–6.344.42–15.06
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.5148.53safe44.72–58.3041.75–55.32safer43.05–59.9740.08–56.99
Passes
54%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction478465942safe411–545398–531809–1076safer392–563381–549773–1112
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction73.4578.75safe69.42–77.4874.42–83.07safer68.13–78.7773.11–84.38
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1112.5525.66safe10.27–15.959.60–15.4919.88–31.44safer9.52–16.718.85–16.2418.37–32.95
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.392.89safe0.35–2.670.29–2.480.64–5.15safer0.05–2.970.00–2.770.05–5.74
Yellow cards
26%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.343.91safe0.53–2.631.21–3.471.74–6.09safer0.26–2.890.92–3.761.18–6.65
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
21%
13%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.494.036.52safe1.05–3.922.48–5.593.53–9.51safer0.66–4.312.05–6.012.71–10.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.82 0.85–2.79 0.60–3.04 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 6.27 4.41–8.13 3.92–8.62 | 3.84 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 10.11 6.50–13.71 5.55–14.67 | 73% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.91 12.99–20.84 11.89–21.93 | 10.30 6.73–13.86 5.78–14.82 | 27.21 19.72–34.70 17.67–36.75 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.73 7.79–13.67 6.96–14.50 | 6.15 3.46–8.83 2.73–9.56 | 16.87 11.25–22.50 9.68–24.06 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.66 2.77–6.54 2.23–7.08 | 2.82 1.16–4.47 0.67–4.96 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.73–8.15 3.15–8.73 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.27–6.34 | 9.74 5.53–13.96 4.42–15.06 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 51.51 44.72–58.30 43.05–59.97 | 48.53 41.75–55.32 40.08–56.99 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 392–563 | 465 398–531 381–549 | 942 809–1076 773–1112 | 54% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.45 69.42–77.48 68.13–78.77 | 78.75 74.42–83.07 73.11–84.38 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.11 10.27–15.95 9.52–16.71 | 12.55 9.60–15.49 8.85–16.24 | 25.66 19.88–31.44 18.37–32.95 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.39 0.29–2.48 0.00–2.77 | 2.89 0.64–5.15 0.05–5.74 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.89 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 3.91 1.74–6.09 1.18–6.65 | 26% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 4.03 2.48–5.59 2.05–6.01 | 6.52 3.53–9.51 2.71–10.32 | 21% 13% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+