UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.383.04safe0.70–2.630.52–2.231.22–4.87safer0.45–2.880.29–2.460.74–5.35
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.039.02safe3.14–6.862.28–5.775.42–12.63safer2.65–7.351.82–6.234.46–13.58
Total shots
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4411.3626.80safe11.52–19.377.79–14.9219.31–34.29safer10.43–20.466.83–15.8817.26–36.34
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.297.2217.51safe7.35–13.234.54–9.9011.89–23.14safer6.52–14.063.80–10.6410.32–24.70
Blocked shots
54%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.407.62safe2.34–6.101.75–5.054.08–11.15safer1.79–6.651.25–5.543.05–12.19
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.253.909.15safe3.04–7.471.90–5.904.94–13.37safer2.46–8.041.37–6.433.83–14.47
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.2050.48safe42.41–55.9943.70–57.27safer40.74–57.6642.02–58.94
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction436446882safe369–503379–512748–1015safer351–521362–530712–1051
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction72.1775.85safe68.15–76.2071.53–80.17safer66.85–77.5070.22–81.48
Fouls
26%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1315.0427.17safe9.30–14.9712.09–17.9821.39–32.95safer8.54–15.7311.34–18.7319.89–34.46
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.683.35safe0.50–2.820.59–2.781.09–5.60safer0.20–3.120.30–3.060.50–6.19
Yellow cards
23%
18%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.634.24safe0.56–2.661.50–3.752.06–6.42safer0.30–2.931.21–4.051.50–6.98
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.130.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.53safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.81
GK saves
32%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.265.93safe1.23–4.101.71–4.822.94–8.92safer0.84–4.491.28–5.242.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.63 0.45–2.88 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 3.04 1.22–4.87 0.74–5.35 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.86 2.65–7.35 | 4.03 2.28–5.77 1.82–6.23 | 9.02 5.42–12.63 4.46–13.58 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.44 11.52–19.37 10.43–20.46 | 11.36 7.79–14.92 6.83–15.88 | 26.80 19.31–34.29 17.26–36.34 | 76% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.29 7.35–13.23 6.52–14.06 | 7.22 4.54–9.90 3.80–10.64 | 17.51 11.89–23.14 10.32–24.70 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.34–6.10 1.79–6.65 | 3.40 1.75–5.05 1.25–5.54 | 7.62 4.08–11.15 3.05–12.19 | 54% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.25 3.04–7.47 2.46–8.04 | 3.90 1.90–5.90 1.37–6.43 | 9.15 4.94–13.37 3.83–14.47 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 49.20 42.41–55.99 40.74–57.66 | 50.48 43.70–57.27 42.02–58.94 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 436 369–503 351–521 | 446 379–512 362–530 | 882 748–1015 712–1051 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.17 68.15–76.20 66.85–77.50 | 75.85 71.53–80.17 70.22–81.48 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 12.13 9.30–14.97 8.54–15.73 | 15.04 12.09–17.98 11.34–18.73 | 27.17 21.39–32.95 19.89–34.46 | 26% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.06 | 3.35 1.09–5.60 0.50–6.19 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 2.63 1.50–3.75 1.21–4.05 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.50–6.98 | 23% 18% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.26 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 32% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.