UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.413.06safe0.69–2.620.55–2.261.24–4.88safer0.43–2.870.32–2.490.76–5.36
Shots on target
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.439.66safe3.37–7.102.69–6.176.06–13.27safer2.88–7.592.22–6.645.10–14.22
Total shots
66%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8412.2427.09safe10.92–18.778.68–15.8119.60–34.57safer9.83–19.867.72–16.7717.55–36.62
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.857.7217.57safe6.91–12.795.03–10.4011.94–23.19safer6.08–13.624.30–11.1310.38–24.76
Blocked shots
46%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.988.22safe2.36–6.122.33–5.644.69–11.76safer1.82–6.671.84–6.133.65–12.79
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.229.28safe2.84–7.272.22–6.225.06–13.49safer2.27–7.841.69–6.763.96–14.60
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.9749.75safe43.18–56.7642.97–56.54safer41.51–58.4341.30–58.21
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction467454921safe400–534388–520787–1055safer382–552370–538752–1090
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction71.5375.55safe67.50–75.5671.22–79.87safer66.21–76.8569.91–81.18
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6012.5622.16safe6.77–12.449.61–15.5016.38–27.95safer6.01–13.208.87–16.2514.88–29.45
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.473.23safe0.60–2.920.38–2.560.98–5.49safer0.30–3.220.09–2.850.39–6.08
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.903.28safe0.33–2.430.77–3.031.10–5.45safer0.06–2.690.48–3.320.54–6.01
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.246.29safe1.61–4.491.69–4.803.30–9.28safer1.23–4.871.26–5.222.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.69–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.23 3.37–7.10 2.88–7.59 | 4.43 2.69–6.17 2.22–6.64 | 9.66 6.06–13.27 5.10–14.22 | 54% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.84 10.92–18.77 9.83–19.86 | 12.24 8.68–15.81 7.72–16.77 | 27.09 19.60–34.57 17.55–36.62 | 66% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.85 6.91–12.79 6.08–13.62 | 7.72 5.03–10.40 4.30–11.13 | 17.57 11.94–23.19 10.38–24.76 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 2.36–6.12 1.82–6.67 | 3.98 2.33–5.64 1.84–6.13 | 8.22 4.69–11.76 3.65–12.79 | 46% 14% 39% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.84 | 4.22 2.22–6.22 1.69–6.76 | 9.28 5.06–13.49 3.96–14.60 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.97 43.18–56.76 41.51–58.43 | 49.75 42.97–56.54 41.30–58.21 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 467 400–534 382–552 | 454 388–520 370–538 | 921 787–1055 752–1090 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.53 67.50–75.56 66.21–76.85 | 75.55 71.22–79.87 69.91–81.18 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 9.60 6.77–12.44 6.01–13.20 | 12.56 9.61–15.50 8.87–16.25 | 22.16 16.38–27.95 14.88–29.45 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.23 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 0.33–2.43 0.06–2.69 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.28 1.10–5.45 0.54–6.01 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.49 1.23–4.87 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 6.29 3.30–9.28 2.49–10.10 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+