UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.260.753.01safe1.29–3.230.00–1.611.19–4.83safer1.04–3.480.00–1.840.71–5.31
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.422.679.09safe4.56–8.280.93–4.415.49–12.70safer4.07–8.770.46–4.884.53–13.65
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.168.2426.40safe14.23–22.084.68–11.8118.92–33.89safer13.14–23.173.72–12.7716.87–35.94
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.204.5416.74safe9.26–15.141.86–7.2211.12–22.37safer8.43–15.971.12–7.969.55–23.93
Blocked shots
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.492.186.67safe2.61–6.380.52–3.833.13–10.21safer2.07–6.920.03–4.322.10–11.24
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.592.939.53safe4.38–8.810.93–4.935.32–13.74safer3.81–9.380.40–5.474.21–14.85
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction59.4141.71safe52.62–66.2034.93–48.50safer50.95–67.8733.25–50.17
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction553398950safe486–620331–464817–1084safer467–638314–482781–1120
Pass accuracy %
72%
23%
homeawayprediction79.7874.67safe75.75–83.8170.35–78.99safer74.45–85.1069.04–80.30
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3612.1323.50safe8.53–14.209.19–15.0817.72–29.28safer7.77–14.968.44–15.8316.21–30.78
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.653.48safe0.67–2.990.55–2.741.22–5.73safer0.37–3.290.26–3.030.63–6.32
Yellow cards
24%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.013.29safe0.23–2.320.88–3.141.11–5.47safer0.00–2.590.59–3.430.55–6.02
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.120.15safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.50safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.78
GK saves
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction2.044.126.16safe0.61–3.482.56–5.673.17–9.15safer0.22–3.872.13–6.102.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.26 1.29–3.23 1.04–3.48 | 0.75 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.84 | 3.01 1.19–4.83 0.71–5.31 | 72% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.42 4.56–8.28 4.07–8.77 | 2.67 0.93–4.41 0.46–4.88 | 9.09 5.49–12.70 4.53–13.65 | 86% |
| Total shots | 18.16 14.23–22.08 13.14–23.17 | 8.24 4.68–11.81 3.72–12.77 | 26.40 18.92–33.89 16.87–35.94 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.20 9.26–15.14 8.43–15.97 | 4.54 1.86–7.22 1.12–7.96 | 16.74 11.12–22.37 9.55–23.93 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.49 2.61–6.38 2.07–6.92 | 2.18 0.52–3.83 0.03–4.32 | 6.67 3.13–10.21 2.10–11.24 | 76% 13% |
| Corners | 6.59 4.38–8.81 3.81–9.38 | 2.93 0.93–4.93 0.40–5.47 | 9.53 5.32–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 85% |
| Possession % | 59.41 52.62–66.20 50.95–67.87 | 41.71 34.93–48.50 33.25–50.17 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 553 486–620 467–638 | 398 331–464 314–482 | 950 817–1084 781–1120 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.78 75.75–83.81 74.45–85.10 | 74.67 70.35–78.99 69.04–80.30 | — | 72% 23% |
| Fouls | 11.36 8.53–14.20 7.77–14.96 | 12.13 9.19–15.08 8.44–15.83 | 23.50 17.72–29.28 16.21–30.78 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.65 0.55–2.74 0.26–3.03 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 0.23–2.32 0.00–2.59 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.02 | 24% 22% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.04 0.61–3.48 0.22–3.87 | 4.12 2.56–5.67 2.13–6.10 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 14% 74% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.